Gregory Kirchoff
@gckirchoff.bsky.socialA discussion on the phrase "the science changed," navigating uncertainty, and a quick update to
@arijitchakrav's (twitter handle) and my interactive cumulative risk calculator - adding growth/decay.
www.peertopublic.com
There have been and will be many predictions about this pandemic - both correct and incorrect. As Yogi Berra said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. How then are we supposed to navigate predicting and acting under uncertainty? Flexibly and cautiously.
I don't know exactly how things will play out, so I make my charts flexibly to account for as many outcomes as possible. But because we need to act somehow and the set of all possibilities isn't helpful, we need to bound our predictions within reasonable ranges.
Given the evidence for COVID's long term harms (panaccindex.info), we have to at least include some "bad" outcomes in our bounded predictions. This is where we get to how to act under uncertainty. When bad outcomes are meaningfully possible, you act cautiously.
panaccindex.info
The phrase, "the science changed" has been used a lot during this pandemic as a polarized, flip-floppy alternative for consistent precautions. This approach reflects more on the competing motives within institutions than genuine scientific shifts, as it rarely applies elsewhere.
If a plane hits turbulence, O2 masks drop as a precaution. The captain doesn’t yell, “We’re doomed!” then say, “Oh wait, the science changed. Taking the masks back” after 20 seconds of calm—only to drop them again and repeat the chaotic cycle with every bump.
The masks drop because turbulence shifts the range of possible outcomes to include worse scenarios. They stay down until the meaningful set of outcomes no longer includes disastrous ones—either through landing or prolonged stability.
The phrase is also used to create distance from responsibility. If an engineer makes a plane that instantly crashes or a baseball catcher misses a ball, claiming that the science of Newtonian physics changed doesn't cut it.
The point is: taking precautions, like masking, based on what’s reasonably possible is simply being cautious and responsible.
In addition, I believe the internet is way too saturated these days so I try to lower my quantity footprint and increase my quality footprint by making less-frequent content that adapts to our ever changing world, and updating those instead of posting new things if need be.