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So from my uniquely weird perspective after living in the UK through Brexit, being in India during Modi's demonetization, and living in Brazil when the real tanked during the Bolsonaro administration, I can confidentally say that Americans do not and can not understand how bad this is going to be.

Bill Grueskin
Bill Grueskin· April 9, 2025
@bgrueskin.bsky.social

Every damned word of this 4-graf brief, except “By WSJ Staff,” should scare the bejeesus out of you this morning. www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

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WSJ
Dollar Confidence Crisis Is Here, Deutsche Bank Warns
By WSJ Staff
The broad selloff in U.S. stocks and bonds, and the continuing decline in the dollar, represents a
"simultaneous collapse in the price of all U.S. assets," analysts at Deutsche Bank said Wednesday. They warned that "unchartered territory" lies ahead.
• Markets are dedollarizing, they said, citing the lack of evidence that investors are hoarding dollar liquidity- a dynamic that in previous market routs fueled Treasury and U.S. dollar rallies but this time is leading to declines in the prices of both.
• The administration is encouraging the Treasury selloff, they said, in a bid to bring down U.S. asset valuations-a decision they said now is exposing the fact that "reducing bilateral trade imbalances is functionally equivalent to lowering demand for U.S. assets as well."
• A financial war with China could lie ahead, they conclude, contending that "there is little room now left for an escalation on the trade front" and that
"there can be no winner to such a war."

To sort of broadly describe what is about to happen if the Trump admin doesn't reverse course, we are quickly racing towards a world where not only does our money just not work correctly anymore day to day, but the background radiation of a crumbling economy will become impossible to ignore.

After the Brexit referendum, everything in London just got slightly worse. A year or two in, you could feel it. But that's because it took five years for the country to actually leave the EU. We're speedrunning that. In Brazil, prices would change overnight, stores just wouldn't have stuff.

Covering the demonetization experiment in India as a journalist, we spent a day basically trying to get someone to break the equivalent of $50. It took all day and after a couple hours I actually started to feel like a unique form of dread. Like what if your money just suddenly didn't work anymore.

I've seen a lot of Americans sort of saying, "oh it'll be like the Great Depression" or "it'll be like the Great Recession," but the global economy is different now. It's way more connected than it was even in 2008. And we essentially just removed ourselves from it this week and then doubled down.

You can tell yourself things like, "I guess I won't buy stuff anymore," but it's not that simple. If the tariffs stay in place, we're looking at hyperinflation like Argentina experienced last year (didn't go there, but knew people living there). At certain point, money just doesn't work.

This is why any headlines about "de-dollarization" right now should really scare you. Americans have been insulated from the worst of the economic collapses of the 21st century because of the dollar. We are about to find out what it feels like when that's no longer true. bsky.app

Laurens
Laurens· April 9, 2025
@laurenshof.online

even more fun that pretty much all recent examples of countries where money stops working people start using physical US dollars instead. So what physical currency are americans gonna use when dollars stop working?

To be clear, I am not an economist lol, but if you want to feel proactive, I would ask yourself, "what can I go buy right now that I might need that will last for multiple years?" Clothes, electronics, any foreign-made goods, etc. And also ask, "what debt can I pay off?" bsky.app

Kim Kelly
Kim Kelly· April 9, 2025
@kimkelly.bsky.social

So uh what should we be doing right now to get ready

I put a lot of the thoughts from this thread in today's Garbage Day. www.garbageday.email

As I wrote on Monday, I lived through Brexit in the UK. But I also was in Mumbai in 2016 during India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “demonetization” scheme, which made existing ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes worthless overnight. Basically, imagine if everyone’s $5 and $10 bills just stopped being money. And I also spent most of the Bolsonaro administration living in Brazil, which tanked the real and led to regular inflation. So while I am definitely not an economist, I am somewhat uniquely positioned to tell you what to expect if these tariffs aren’t reversed. And I can very confidently say that the average American can’t actually imagine it. The comparisons to the Great Depression or Great Recession flying around social media right now don’t take into account how connected the global economy is now. The systemic rot I witnessed during the UK’s five-year-long withdrawal from the EU happened slowly. One day I just noticed stuff wasn’t as nice as it once was, didn’t work as well. And we just US-exited over night. While reporting on demonetization in India, we tried an experiment. Go around the city and see if a business could make change for a big banknote. It took all day and after a few hours I actually started to feel a new kind of dread I had never felt before: What happens when your money just doesn’t work anymore? And in Brazil during the Bolsonaro years, it wasn’t uncommon to just not be able to get stuff — cheese, certain kinds of meat, butter, wine — and if you could get it, there was no way to anticipate how much it would cost. Now imagine that with virtually everything.

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