notes on gatesnotes, in a thread "A new way to look at the problem" - er, no, he's been running this line for DECADES On the headline: you can absolutely guarantee anyone presenting themselves as telling tough, hard truths is about to deliver some self-aggrandising nonsense
As always, the key question for these guys is: WHO THE HELL ARE YOU ARGUING AGAINST. It is wild how they just Make Up A Guy constantly, and it doesn't occur to anyone to ask them who the hell they're talking about. Spend 0.0001 seconds looking at eNGO climate pages, folks
This is the last mention of climate change from the US Sunrise Movement. It's.........pretty reasonable? Nothing about the looming extinction of human civilisation?
"Unfortunately, the doomsday outlook is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emissions goals" This is just......not true. the 'climate community' is diverse, but there has *absolutely* been a noticeable de-prioritisation of worrying about emissions targets.
I think that's actually a bad thing!!! Greenhouse gas emissions still cause the same type of damage they did when human priorities and discourse were different! And setting frameworks to stop them is important! This is where the Effective Altruist Brain spins up to full frequency: because climate change isn't the only or most significant problem, that means we need to start firing emissions goals into the sun. This is why EA ends up so frequently directly helping corporate wrongdoing and fossil fuels....
I have always used Gates' carbon removal purchases as an incredible and eye-watering example of how carbon removal can serve as an excuse to continue emitting, for those who can afford it I guess he won't bother now though? Why would you, if emissions aren't worth bothering with?
Notably: there is no real effort here to be specific about what Gates Foundation investments have brought about material reductions in Earth's warming. This will be important later................
Okay. So this is where it all starts to go from Bad Opinions to Actually Wrong. You can read the full @climateactiontracker.org report Gates' team is referencing here: climateactiontracker.org (this will ALSO be important later) I have no qualms with this graphic:
Then there's this meme we've seen repeated constantly among ecomodernist posters: 'there's no low-energy-high-income-societies'. It is debunked here industrydecarbonization.com - the reality is way more complex Gates' view: wind and solar are failing to decouple energy vs carbon
*This* is where Gates really gets going with the talking point he's been pushing for a LONG time: we can't get anywhere without saying 'screw you' to immediate action and investing in """"InnovAtion""""" instead. This from 1.5 decades is just the same flat talking point, "energy miracles"
Okay - so - a lot to unpack here. #1: Gates is comparing the 2014 IEA "current policies" scenario to the 2024 "stated policies" scenario. Bit odd but whatevs: the point does hold. My collation of 2014 (green) and 2024 (yellow) IEA scenarios for co2 below: 'actuals' between worst and best case.
Pretty much the same story for IPCC scenarios too, btw. Things could be worse! Or better!!! robbieandrew.github.io
Here's the lie: it wasn't "innovation" that shifted trajectories It was - Massive deployments of wind (and solar) (contrary to Gates' wishes) - Huge gov't subsidies to help that - The climate movement aggressively defending those policies against people like Gates' friend Bjorn Lomborg
To be clear: I'm not exaggerating when I say Gates was VERY SPECIFICALLY against the thing he's now claiming to be the result of "innovation" We'd be on that ultra-shit trajectory, if Gates had been king of the world. theregister.com
To be clear: yes, of course some things needs to be researched and invented to *fully* replace all fossil fuels and high-emitting agriculture. But Gates is saying that should *replace* and *corrode* efforts to mitigate and deploy things today. Which is why Fox News and Lomborg love him
Here's the other problem: as @climateactiontracker.org point out in the report Gates' staffers either didn't read or chose to ignore - the shifting projections from 'bad' to 'less bad' STOPPED SHIFTING after covid and MIGHT BE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS MORE BAD climateactiontracker.org
really can't see anything in here about needing to drop short-term emissions goals!! climateactiontracker.org
I am really not a disaster risk, hazards or health expert so less from me on the 2nd and 3rd Truths™ but wow you can really tell whoever wrote this has been mainlining Roger Pielke Jr / Bjorn Lomborg X posts for a long time.
oops here's the link lse.ac.uk
www.lse.ac.uk
The whole thing is full of fun and weird contradictions like this Like if emissions rise because everyone has completely ditched any near-term emissions goals, that'll cause more heat-related deaths. That is just a straightforward fact So are emissions important or not?? Make up your mind William!
That's right climate activists: stop fighting for enviro justice, against corporate profits, new fossil fuel projects etc WHAT DO WE WANT SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTIONS IN THE 'GREEN PREMIUM' FOR A RANGE OF EARLY TRL-STAGE TECHNOLOGIES WHEN DO WE WANT IT NOT SURE WHEN OR ALSO WHY WE'RE SAYING THIS
Finally: can we all just agree that this was definitely a terrible idea
This is, as I've said before, the era of the climate vulture. The superstructure of multilateral climate cooperation and government, corporate and regional emissions reductions goals are weaker than they were in 2019, but stronger than they were in 2015. So the climate vultures are swooping. For Gates, this means being more openly hostile towards climate regulations and restrictions, and being more brazen about "ranking" priorities in such a way as to allow him and related companies to operate unrestricted Not new at all for him: but the changed context means he can be more direct
There is probably plenty going on inside Bill Gates' head, but I reckon one of the most parsimonious explanations of why he's sagely pronouncing that climate groups need to stop worrying about short-term emissions targets can be found in the sustainability reports of the company he founded.
In 2014, Bill Gates featured Bjorn Lomborg on his website: in a video where Lomborg walks up stairs labelled FIGHTING POVERTY WITH FOSSIL FUELS Now that clean *is* cheap, Lomborg spends all his energy attacking exactly what he was dishonestly "asking" for bsky.app
A quick blog for y'all, because it feels important to nip this one early: NO, this chart DOESN'T show a European solar voltage apocalypse Spoiler: it is almost entirely down to Sweden's grid operator upgrading detection software All the dirty details here: ketanjoshi.co
So: Lomborg spent the 2010s pretending that he just wanted to see cheap clean energy, and is spending the 2020s attacking the hell out of it because it's cheap and accessible Gates is just claiming all the victories of the policies he fought against as his own. Climate vultures. THE END APPENDIX A: It is pretty damn noticeable how none of the big names in the effective altruist movement (Andy Masley, Rutger Bergman, Ritchie et al) seem to want to quantify exactly how much climate benefit the Gates Foundation climate investments have had Pretty damn hypocritical! APPENDIX B: conservative media outlets correctly recognised that Gates is their homeboy, but wrongly assumed this is something new. Homeboy's just coming home ❤️💖🍦🍭☕
APPENDIX C: I knew there was a more recent Lomborg thing on gates' blog but I couldn't find it I found out why: it has been quietly deleted!! No explanation why. But it's still on wayback web.archive.org
APPENDIX D: Just my boy @timinclimate.bsky.social highlighting yet another instance of how Gates is flat out fabricating something to argue against. This is the basis of his ENTIRE intervention!! bsky.app
I quite enjoyed a lot of the takedowns of Bill Gates' EA brain snap on climate. It is really deadassed in a number of ways. But no-one mentioned the most important thing. He isn't *just* full of shit. He knows he is full of shit. I can prove it: timinclimate.medium.com
timinclimate.medium.com
^^^^^ DEFINITELY read it, I don't want to spoil it for you but it's WAY more damning than you expect APPENDIX E: (sorry I'm remembering all the stuff I forgot but this is important) It is wild how "the projections are getting better" has become a lukewarmist talking point. Putting aside the fact that mode of progress has stalled, "WHAT ARE YOU WORRYING ABOUT" is a key position for obstructionists
A while ago I talked about how if we had success on climate, the predominant response from right wingers / conservatives would be "WOW WHAT YOU WERE ALL PANICKING ABOUT" like there was after a huge global effort prevented y2k failure in the year 2000. Didn't predict how soon we'd see this, though
APPENDIX F: Daniel's GOOD thread: bsky.app
I wanted to offer some thoughts on the Gates climate memo that has been circulating this week. While I can't directly speak for others, I can say that my own response is one of dismay & deep frustration (and that this view is shared by many climate/Earth scientists). [1/n]
APPENDIX G: White supremacist / eugenicist (and self-identified nazi) Jordan Lasker among the far-right figures (including donald Trump) who are pickup what Gates is putting down motherjones.com