1/ I have written a series of articles this week, ‘Notes on Trust’, about where cynicism towards politicians comes from. The below chart, which I shared last year, was the thing which initially prompted me to write the piece. I just want to set out some of the key arguments here…
2/ The FIRST article looks at four ‘red herring’ explanation for the 21st Century collapse in trust: - Politicians ignoring the will of the people - Politicians failing to deliver - Politicians being out of touch - Politicians behaving corruptly Read here: parables.substack.com
parables.substack.com
3/ My point is that these things are not new (rather than that they don’t exist or aren’t a problem). For instance, as the attached chart shows, political discontent was higher in the opulent 2000s than in 3-day week and Winter of Discontent – undermining the idea that it’s all down to delivery.
4/ And the proportion of MPs who are privately educated has fallen steadily, as has almost every other metric for being ‘in touch’. Politicians could be more in touch, of course. But they were much more guilty of living in an ‘ivory tower’ during the decades when trust was higher.
5/ The SECOND article looks at four root causes for the decline in democratic trust: - The decline of deference - An increasingly heterogeneous society - Globalisation reducing politicians’ efficacy - The information age increasing scrutiny Read here: parables.substack.com
parables.substack.com
6/ For instance, the chart below shows the dramatic increase in the % of voters switching parties at each election. I link this in the piece to the decline of deference. It means politicians are increasingly incentivised to focus on valence issues/ the median voter.
7/ The THIRD article looks specifically at exposure. It argues that we’re seeing a sort of ‘Moynihan’s Law’ with trust. An age of ultra-scrutiny means failure and misconduct is unearthed more often. But this causes trust to fall. Read here: parables.substack.com
parables.substack.com
8/ To be clear, this is not meant in a complacent or pollyannaish way. Distrust is corrosive, aiding populism and fuelling conspiracy theories. It can’t be treated as a healthy by-product. But as the chart shows, we need to understand is as the consequence of a high-exposure society.
9/ The FOURTH article draws a comparison between politicians and airline pilots. Read here: parables.substack.com
parables.substack.com
10/ These two professions sit at opposite ends of the ‘veracity’ index for professions, as the chart shows. I used the attached New Yorker cartoon, from 2017, to explore whether we’re comparing like-with-like here.
11/ There are two key differences: A) Politicians must set the destination, immediately disappointing a significant proportion of ‘passengers’ B) Politicians cannot guarantee a perfect outcome/ safe flight to the same extent – competence ≠ delivery (or at least the correlation is weak)
12/ The FIFTH piece is about partisanship. It starts by looking at Dickens’ satire of politicians in the Pickwick Papers – in which two rabidly tribal parties, the Blues and the Buffs, kick lumps out of each other over minor differences. Read here: parables.substack.com
parables.substack.com
13/ Politicians in the UK are disproportionately mistrusted compared to apolitical parts of the state, as the chart shows. My hypothesis is that this comes down to a partisan culture (‘two swords and one inch apart’) – as exemplified by PMQs.
14/ The piece concludes by exploring the idea of ‘country before party’ – which ought to be the tonic to ‘Blues and Buffs’ style partisanship. I have set out a list of common practices which I believe do not pass the ‘country before party’ test.
15/ The series is wrapped up with a much shorter concluding article: parables.substack.com
parables.substack.com
16/ Thanks for reading this thread – any thoughts on the articles or the topic of trust in general are very welcome! May be of interest to @drjennings.bsky.social @anooshc.bsky.social @samfr.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social @robertsaunders.bsky.social @rafaelbehr.bsky.social @claire-ainsley.bsky.social @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social @steveakehurst.bsky.social @stevevr.bsky.social