NEW: How robust is opinion change on Brexit/Brexit @persuasionuk.bsky.social research properly stress tested it. We find a fair bit of softness. We think headline Rejoin support is more like 52 v 48% (!) rather than ~64-36% you see in polls. Not fatal for Rejoin but worth paying attention to🧵
Firstly, worth saying that Brexit is now widely perceived to be a failure by UK voters. Hence topline support for Rejoin in many polls. Demography matters too. Of the ~13.5 point fall in Leave/Stay Out opinion since 2016, 5.5 points is old people dying and new.
To stress test, we ran a conjoint expoing voters to different obligations & benefits of Rejoin or Closer Relationship deal, plus pro & anti messages. Then RCT exposing ppl to likely media headlines, incl hostile ones. Idea was to test opinion in more realistic info enviro. Example set-up from both:
After exposure to the elements and messages likely to be involved, support for Rejoin ended up at ~52-48% on average. Still a majority - and strong among Lab 24 - but bit lower than top line polling. 'Closer Relationship' (customs union) cleared 50% a bit more easily.
What pushes up and down on Rejoin, then? The main things that pull it <50% are: - any prospect (however theoretical) of Euro - Budget payments - Exiting trade deals (surprised me but maybe sunk cost factor) Freedom of movement a vulnerability but less potent than 2016 imo
Another vulnerability is just sheer voter exhaustion. Voters willing to give politicians 18 months to sort out a deal but anything more drags down support. Badenoch tapped into this well recently, more 'do we really want to re-open all this' than 'tell the lib traitors again'
What's the good news for pro-EU advocates? 3 things consistently push voters to Rejoin: - Travel chaos is tangible and has been noticed. Evens up politics of free movement - Economy (impact on SMEs) - Security/defence. US unreliable in a dangerous world = push to EU.
This and demography - plus Brexit being synonymous with status quo in a restless electorate - are genuinely big tectonic forces that push to Europe. Anti-EU advocates will not be able to rely on the same playbook as 2016. So what then? My overall read is is if you offered people the chance to be *back in EU tomorrow on exactly same terms as before* you'd probably get a majority. But it's the gap between that and reality where softness lies. Opinion is in fluid and there to be won by either side imo. In the interim, i'd be suspicious of any topline polling on a subject most ppl aren't thinking of much. There's also lots that needs looking at on electoral politics of a Lab Rejoin offer. eg does it encourage tactical voting on right; is it a trump card vs SNP/Plaid in Scotland/Wales or no, etc. Ok that's the thread. I am really proud of this research, I think it's some of the best we've done. Hope you'll get the chance to read it in full. Up here: persuasionuk.org Finally, big thanks to @ippr.org & as ever @convergent-opinion.bsky.social for their partnership on this. End!
persuasionuk.org