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Ruth Deyermond
Ruth Deyermond

Lots of discussion on here and elsewhere about the Kushner/Kremlin ideas for a "new European security architecture", but the idea this is the moment to rethink European security is profoundly unrealistic (and un-Realist, for what that's worth). A few points: 1. You cannot develop a new security architecture that locks Russia, European NATO and Ukraine into some kind of shared, stabilising framework if Russia is understood by the others to be their most serious security threat. 2. You cannot develop a new or revised European security architecture that includes Russia, European NATO, and Ukraine when Russia regards the existence of the first and the independence of the second as an existential security threat. 3. You cannot develop a new European security architecture that involves Russia when the idea that the West is Russia's eternal enemy is one of the main ideological props of the Putin presidency. 4. You cannot develop a new or revised European security architecture that includes Russia, European NATO, and Ukraine when no trust - and no realistic possibility of trust - exists between European NATO + Ukraine on the one hand and Russia on the other. 5. You cannot develop a new or revised European security architecture that includes Russia, European NATO, and Ukraine, when Russia under Putin has shown no interest in abiding by previous treaties or engaging seriously with previously agreed structures. 6. You cannot develop a security architecture founded (as it would have to be) on the principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity when Russia has shown consistently for 35 years that it does not recognise these principles in relation to its neighbours. 7. You cannot develop a new European security architecture when the Russian government wants and expects to defeat Ukraine, and also wants and expects to undermine both NATO and the domestic security of NATO members, and this is extremely unlikely to change (see points 2 and 3). 8. You cannot demilitarise Europe if Russia retains an armed forces (wherever located) that are large enough to aggress other European states, and if it retains nuclear weapons. Unless Russia entirely dismantles its military and denuclearises, European states including Ukraine will need armed forces large enough to deter further Russian aggression. Russia is never going to demilitarise, and so Europe will need to keep increasing its military capabilities 9. New security architectures are developed when old arrangements have broken down and the conditions allow for cooperation based on at least a minimal degree of trust, or an enemy has been defeated and is no longer a potential threat. Neither is remotely close to applying now. 10. As long as Russia occupies territory which the Ukrainians (rightly) view as Ukrainian, there is no prospect of peace in Ukraine. As long as the Russian state believes its greatness depends on its right to dominate other states, there is no prospect of peace in wider Europe.

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