Here is the OFZ forecast as of 2026 coupon payments and repayments as of today.
Here is yesterday’s thread. It follows a discussion of the preliminary results of yesterday’s auction.
Here are the results of today’s OFZ auction day. You can once again see why I wait on the additional placements results, because there was more placed there than in the actual auction Yield at weighted average price 👉 16.63% minfin.gov.ru minfin.gov.ru
Here is today’s update to this Banking liquidity table where column 2 is sorted in descending order. They’re getting really close to bypassing another of the 2022 values.
I’m keeping an eye on MOEX. I’m curious to see what today’s bond curve looks like.
Russian Government Bond Index investing.com
As a reminder, there’s only one bond left to mature in 2026. That’s variable rate bond PK-29016 on 23 December 2026. You see it show up on the table for December 2026.
Here’s my little color coded table of the different types of variable rate bonds. PK-29016 is the yellow type.
Also of interest here PK-29028 & PK-29029. They need to be offered at auction next week in order for new placements to generate a 2026 coupon payment obligation. We’re hitting that point where the windows on going to start closing.
In addition, PD-26252 (whatever is left) PD-26253 PD-26254 Next will also be their last opportunity for new placements to add to 2026 coupon payment obligations.
Looking at the numbers…there’s a chance that after next week they *might* manage to keep the 2026 coupon payments & repayments under 5 trillion rubles. And to be clear, even if someone tries to spin it as a GOOD thing, it’s actually a side effect of a BAD thing. Why? I use the analogy a lot What is worse: 👉 Having debt? Or 👉 Needing a loan and being unable to get one? Russia NEEDS a loan, the rates are sky high so they don’t like that, AND even if they take the high rates, no one is willing to loan them a sufficient amount. And that’s the reason why they have already had to submit to printing money via Central Bank REPO in 2026, and will likely have to do it again. Another thing I want to point out…. I guess I need to make a disclaimer here beforehand. Things are worse in 2026 than they were in 2025 despite all their efforts. They increased taxes and fees, the Iran war boosted oil prices, and they cut more spending on things, but things are still worse. As things get worse, there’s more unpredictably and volatility. It’s part of the reason why I’ve moved to DAILY OFZ updates instead of weekly. The Ministry of Finance has moved towards this approach also. So we need to be aware that things including Russia’s strategies could change very quickly. So I can give you a look up close as I can about what is happening now, but forecasting accurately what they’re going to do even just to next month is going to be difficult. We’re getting forecasts currently that the 2026 deficit will be over 7 trillion rubles. That could continue to grow. The 2025 deficit was over 5.6 trillion rubles. Based on this 👇 They actually planning to raise LESS funds through OFZ in 2026 than they did in 2025 to fund the deficit. 🤨
‼️ The Russian Ministry of Finance has announced its 2026 Q4 Schedule of OFZ Auctions. There will be 11 Auctions in Q4 with a goal of raising 👉 2.45 Trillion rubles in funds during the quarter. minfin.gov.ru
So they have several trillion rubles of deficit to fund and it’s not clear exactly WHERE that money is going to come from. And the situation may get worse between now and the end of the year. On that topic…here is the NWF update in case you missed it.
‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update Thread As of October 2026: The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds: 👉 184.3519 Billion Yuan (+0.3559 billion) 👉 131.6642 tons of gold (+0.1763 tons) 👉 0 Billion Rubles (-1.6821 billion) (Totals for September)
And I do want to bring this up again. Oil & gas revenues are lower than in 2025, but they’re shoving more money into 🪣 than they did in 2025. Things are worse overall, but there is some money hiding here
The total oil & gas revenues were significantly higher in 2025 than in 2026, yet they are “refilling the NWF” more in 2026. Things didn’t “get better” overall, they just changed their strategy.
I’m taking a guess at what in that bucket there but we don’t have great visaability on it. But still…maybe about 0.9 trillion rubles in the bucket? That’s in addition to liquid assets currently in the NWF that Ministry of Finance valued at 👉 3.8 trillion rubles But they’ve been trying to avoid emptying that. minfin.gov.ru
Update on this
Russian Government Bond Index investing.com
I’ll pause here and come back when the bond curve get posted ~ Intermission ~ Here is the curve. I was looking at some numbers…and while I think the 20 year is a good comparison for people who keep yelling about the US’s 30 year, I’m not sure it’s great for our purposes, so I started writing out a couple more values.
Here’s a rough look at what is available in stock (in millions of rubles) AFTER the PRELIMINARY results of yesterday’s auction. They don’t even have a 20 year bond available. There’s not a whole lot available for 15 year either and most of that is variable rate.
Here, I adjusted it to show Constant Coupon (PD) & Variable Rate (PK) separately
Anyway…Here are my updated associated tables cbr.ru
Now this one has 15 AND 20
Reminder: This is the data source and you can adjust the date range you want. If you click on the underlined dates in the table it will take you to the actual curve. If you weren’t familiar, this is from the Russian Central Bank’s English Language website. cbr.ru
IT WILL GET WORSE ~ The End ~