Here is the OFZ forecast as of today
The Ministry of Finance is offering just 1 bond again this week. Recall that last week’s auction failed.
The Russian Ministry of Finance will offer 1 Constant Coupon Bond at Auction on 7 October 2026 👉 PD-26252 minfin.gov.ru
Recall from yesterday’s thread…
Here is the OFZ Forecast as of today.
That not only did the auction fail, but the demand was ALSO low. There weren’t even enough offers to place the small amount of the bond that was in stock.
So the demand of just 👉 77.29 billion rubles Would have likely resulted in revenue that was significantly less than that if the Ministry of Finance would have agreed to the rates. Which they didn’t.
So even though there’s just a small amount being offered, there’s still a chance they won’t place all of it even if the auction doesn’t fail. And none of this will make significant contributions to hitting their Q4 goal.
Here’s my little calculator chart with the data on it. 7 years to maturity Only about 83 billion rubles (FACE VALUE) of it in stock. Remember that the revenue will be less than even if they place all of it.
Not much change in the REPO results today.
Here’s an update to my banking liquidity table Here’s the data source 👉 cbr.ru
Here is the updated Banking liquidity table, with column 2 sorted in descending order. Remember that red values are the month after the 2022 invasion. Purple is October 2026 Orange is September 2026 Yellow is August 2026
RUONIA has started to run lower. cbr.ru
Here’s what I expect the coupon payments and repayments to be tomorrow. Constant Coupon Bond 👉 PD-26226 Is maturing
I’ll pause here and return once the new bond curve gets released. ~ Intermission ~ Note: 7 year 👉 16.63%
Here are my updated associated graphs Data source: cbr.ru