Here is the OFZ Forecast as of today.
The Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated table one the OFZ auctions that shows the demand at the auction that failed last week. minfin.gov.ru
Remember that this bond would have had a big discount on it and their demand is how much they’re willing to buy NOT how much they were willing to pay. The coupon rate on PD-26228 is just 7.65% and bidders may have been asking for a yield that was double that.
So the demand of just 👉 77.29 billion rubles Would have likely resulted in revenue that was significantly less than that if the Ministry of Finance would have agreed to the rates. Which they didn’t.
Now remember that they’re supposed to find 2.45 trillion rubles in just 11 auction days. Which will be difficult if that little cash is showing up on auction days.
‼️ The Russian Ministry of Finance has announced its 2026 Q4 Schedule of OFZ Auctions. There will be 11 Auctions in Q4 with a goal of raising 👉 2.45 Trillion rubles in funds during the quarter. minfin.gov.ru
Here is the Volumes of Bonds table. Remember that 👉 PD-26226 Is maturing on Wednesday, so it will drop off this table in the next update.
Here is the updated Banking liquidity table, with column 2 sorted in descending order. Remember that red values are the month after the 2022 invasion. Purple is October 2026 Orange is September 2026 Yellow is August 2026
Here is this table updated.
Prices are still high.
Here are my related updated tables Data source: cbr.ru
Remember that there is a connection between these high values and issues with the OFZ auctions. And as we saw earlier, it’s NOT just that the Ministry of Finance doesn’t like the prices, DEMAND is also an Issue.
Something else to be aware of. Here’s a look at the current forecast of coupon payments and repayments The Ministry of Finance has about 808 billion rubles of variable rate bonds “in stock” right now and they have coupon payments due IN OCTOBER. So we could see a boost here if placed.
Here are the coupon payments dates and my little table on what is in stock there. This include the other brand new variable rate bond 👉 PK-29030 That hasn’t been offered at auction yet. It also includes 👉 PK-29028 That was offered earlier this year.
I highlighted when PK-29028 was offered and the auction failed. It was following this even that they just cancelled auctions for several returning to offer 👉 PK-29031 Which was the bond placement they basically forced through by printing cash.
Anyway…rough estimate, if they managed place all of this with the correct timing for the new placements to get a coupon payment… About 30 billion rubles? As of today I’ve got a forecast of 28.65 trillion but that’s probably going to continue to climb.
And they could potentially add another 48.46 billion rubles from constant coupon bond placements. But…I want to make sure we keep track of the biggest problem.
In order for them to add this 77+ billion rubles in coupon payments to October, they would need to be able to place 👉 1,599.3 Billion rubles FACE VALUE of bonds In the right sequence to make it happen. When people only offered to buy 77.3 billion rubles last week.
Their biggest problem is 👉 GETTING A LOAN To pay the bills We’ll see what they do with REPO tomorrow and what (if anything) they decide to offer at auction tomorrow. IT WILL GET WORSE ~ The End ~