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Prune60September 30, 2026 at 10:49 AM EDT

Here is the OFZ forecast as of today As you can see, today’s auction “failed”

Prune6009/30/26

The OFZ auction failed minfin.gov.ru

Probably because of this.

Prune6009/29/26

🚨Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 29 September 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 17.13% The highest since the 2022 invasion cbr.ru

Recall that this same issue was behind the failures/cancelations previously

Here are the coupon payments made today. minfin.gov.ru.

This closes out the quarter. Here’s the total coupon payments and repayments reported to be paid so far this year.

Remember that next week they have a big bill coming due.

Here’s a look at the banking liquidity numbers cbr.ru

So I’ve shoved all that data since the beginning of 2022 in a spreadsheet. I’ve highlighted a month of numbers following the 2022 invasion in red/pink (when we know there was a crisis) I’ve highlighted the the data for September 2026 in orange/peach & August 2026 in yellow

Now look what happened when I sort column 2 in descending order (worst banking liquidity) 🍿

Here’s Elvira again

Prune6009/14/26

11 September 2026 The Russian Central Bank gets asked about banking liquidity. Watch as they brush off the issue. Remember: DO NOT TRUST THE RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK TO TELL THE TRUTH THE WHOLE TRUTH AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH.

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Here is a look at the Russian Government Bond Index investing.com

Prune6009/29/26

Here is a look at the Russian Government Bond Index. investing.com

The Russian Central Bank has released their schedule of 2027 meetings. This means I can show you visually, the other change they’re making in 2027. cbr.ru

This one

Prune6008/31/26

‼️ Russia: “In 2027, the Central Bank of Russia will postpone the application of the new key rate from Monday to Wednesday.” With scheduled meetings to remain on Fridays ru.themoscowtimes.com

Here on my table I use for calculations, I color code the date of a Russian Central Bank Meeting in red/pink and the day the decision is enforced on orange peach. So now you can see the change

While we’re here…RUONIA continues to run high.

I’ll pause here and comeback later if/when the post the new Zero Bond Curve. Here it is. Not much change

Prune6009/30/26

Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 30 September 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 17.12% cbr.ru

Here is my updated graph Data Source: cbr.ru

Here’s the one going back to 2022 with the key rate

Here’s the one going back to 2022 with just the 20 year and the key rate.

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