Here is the OFZ forecast as of today
Here are the auction results table from last week’s auction. minfin.gov.ru
I did some math using the above table and my model (because they have placed a variable rate bond that will result in a 2026 coupon payment) And here is my estimated total for additional 2026 coupon payments as a result of new placements YTD
For reference, the variable coupon payment in that 👆 estimate is the payment due on 29 October. And I do expect it to continue to climb. It’s the only payment currently due on that day. Everything else if constant coupon, thus “locked in”
There were some Secondary Market results. Remember that these are usually just the handful of bonds left before a bond “sells out” This is a teeny tiny amount, I just share it so you know it happened. minfin.gov.ru
Here is the update Volumes of Bond Table. Please note Constant Coupon Bond 👉 PD-26226 Will be maturing next week on 7 October 2026 minfin.gov.ru
Here I highlighted it and the other bond remaining to mature in 2026 Variable Rate Bond 👉 PK-29016 Note: "Amount Outstanding” is the face value of the bond, this is the “Repayment” value in my model
Here is the forecast again. See the Repayment amounts for October and December? They correspond to that 👆
In other news… I *think* someone asked me what the 2026 coupon payment obligations were as a result of 2025 auction placements Again, there’s a variable rate bonds that aren’t quite locked in yet but it will probably be 👉 961 - 963 billion rubles Here is my little calendar. I’ve guessing on how many auction days I think are remaining, but we should get a schedule next week confirming the Q4 auction dates. Keep in mind that this week’s auction falls on the last day of Q3 and the transactions probably won’t take place until 1 October.
All that means is that some results may be weird depending on when they log them. (Probably only matters to the super nerd & analysts) Previously, I told you about how the current “goals” the Russian Ministry of Finance had provide were useless for us. Because we original 2026 Budget is wrong, and we don’t have amended 2026 budget or even clear guidance on HOW the Russian government is going to cover the deficit. Siluanov suggested it would be through additional borrowing (which is what this thread is about) and “accumulated account balances” 😵💫 I’m not sure we even know how big the deficit will be. Here’s what I can show you as metric of where they are in terms of cash flow. Cash received - forecast of 2026 coupon payments and repayments And remember, I am underestimating the forecast, so barring something REALLY WEIRD, the expenses should end up slightly higher
And here is the result (Remember that new placements can also result in additional 2026 coupon payments)
So they’ve (probably) got 12 auction days left where they need to deal with 👆 that AND cover all the other bills
Again, I think the best way to describe Russia right now is 👉 living paycheck to paycheck RUONIA continues to run higher than the key rate. The average value since the last key rate decision was enforced (14 September 2026) is 👉 14.1071 cbr.ru
Here is a look at the Russian Government Bond Index. investing.com
Here is an update to this graph Data source: cbr.ru
We’ll find out tomorrow what they’re offering at auction on Wednesday. IT WILL GET WORSE ~ The End ~