Here is the OFZ forecast as of today
Here is the Update Auction Results table. minfin.gov.ru
There were no additional Secondary Market results. This is represents the sale of just 11 bonds. My weekly grocery bill costs more than this, and we’re talking about a very large country’s finances. This is statistically insignificant But here it is anyway. minfin.gov.ru
Here is the Update Volumes of Bonds table. Recall that Constant Coupon Bond 👉 PD-26219 Matured on 16 September 2026 So it has fallen off the table minfin.gov.ru
For comparison, here is the previous Volumes of Bonds table.
Just as an update I used the Volume of Bonds table to create this table that features ONLY the Variable Rate Bonds & Constant Coupon Bonds So you can see how they’re spreading out the Repayments.
Here is an update on my rough estimate for 2027
I want to make something clear. My methodology is very much based in actual cash flow. 👉 How much cash they received 👉 How much cash they paid out There are a few issues I want to address when we get into talking about “goals” And I THINK THIS IS IMPORTANT Most of the reported “goals” are ones they set for themselves. But at this point they’re basically meaningless. The “budget goals” are based on budget the had a 👉 3.786 Trillion ruble deficit We all know it’s going to be significantly larger than that. So I can show you math related to that but does it really matter?
We still don’t know 👉 How big the deficit is actually going to be OR 👉 How the government intends to PAY for that deficit. And as a result, I don’t think the Q3 goals set really matter either. This is part of the reason why the Duma gave the Ministry of Finance freedom to just do whatever. Because they admit they responding to problems on a daily basis now. So I can show you the cashflow, and how much time I think they have left. I can try to show you that if they’re planning to cover things through OFZ that its likely to be a struggle.
But I think the big FLASHING WARNING LIGHT should be 👉 nobody knows what they’re going to do 👉 when I look at numbers being tossed around I CAN’T honestly say “they’ll still scrape by until next year” I guess it’s possible? Maybe? But I can’t just glance and say they’ll squeak by. And I say this as someone who looks at this as an interconnected system. They’ve already put it under significant strain. They’re using liquid assets in the NWF to prop up the illiquid assets. Efforts to turn illiquid assets back into liquid assets aren’t going well. They’re seizing other people’s assets, but that comes with consequences, and finding people to buy them isn’t so easy. The increases in taxes & fees are pushing businesses to close or go “underground” as that black market (shadow economy) expands. They’re “eating their seed corn” here Wages are also beginning to stagnate. We’re seeing some reports of government employees cost of living wage increases being postponed and the regions increase financial contributions to the war. So people are going to be spending their savings and there will be less taxable income. And as much as the everyone tries to avoid the topic or project whatever counts as optimism, there is a growing suspicion that the key rate may increase again. They can try to weaken the ruble significantly but food prices will likely go up, along with everything else they import. And the migrant labor may leave, which would also be a problem. 🧐 everywhere I look I see road blocks that come with consequences. IT WILL GET WORSE ~ The End ~