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Elizabeth N. SaundersMarch 6, 2026 at 11:25 AM EST

🧵Feels like shouting into the void, but it is essential to note that the Trump/Rubio gutting of the State Department and blowtorching of US diplomatic capacity and credibility is an accelerant to this spiraling war and will seriously undercut US/allied efforts to pick up the pieces after. 1/ The Trump/Rubio attack began immediately. The DOGE/Musk assault on USAID, abetted by Rubio, the threat of mass firings, and the obvious sidelining of expertise in State itself. See Rubio's early trip to Riyadh to meet Lavrov. @goodauth.bsky.social 2/ goodauthority.org

Then there was the humiliation of Zelensky in the Oval Office, followed swiftly by the humiliation of South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa. Bullying foreign leaders on live television, as policy. 3/ goodauthority.org

Face-to-face meetings, Oval Office visits, and leader summits are diplomatic currency. Trump/Rubio burned through them like drunk gamblers. Remember Putin's visit to Alaska? To a US military base? The red carpet? The clapping? 4/ goodauthority.org

Now the 2026 regime-changey spree. Diplomacy is not the opposite of war, it is also a tool of war. If you threaten war to get what you want, you need to do coercive diplomacy. If you know you want to fight, diplomacy can make war go better for you. Allies, opposition party support, they help! 5/ Don't forget Greenland: between Venezuela and Iran, Trump flew to Davos and used that platform to threaten a NATO ally's territory. Setting more diplomatic currency on fire, for literally nothing and no reason. We could get anything we wanted from Denmark if we just...asked. 5.5/ Regional allies knew what was coming. In 1991 there was a concerted effort to keep Israel from participating in the war and provide it with defense (Patriot missiles) instead. @djpressman.bsky.social @goodauth.bsky.social 7/ goodauthority.org

Here, none of that. @abuaardvark.bsky.social describes the shock in the Gulf at the US inability to protect countries to which it had made security promises, if not treaty commitments. One may think the US should not be in the Gulf, but this is chaos. 8/ foreignpolicy.com

The US did not even ask Ukraine for anti-drone help. Now the Gulf countries are talking to Ukraine. Who knows where that leads? The UK (the UK!) is also adrift defending bases and getting its people out. Alliance tensions are normal, starting wars without basic alliance management is not. 9/ The US did not even ask Ukraine for anti-drone help. Now the Gulf countries are talking to Ukraine. Who knows where that leads? The UK (the UK!) is also adrift defending bases and getting its people out. Alliance tensions are normal, starting wars without basic alliance management is not. 9/ Diplomacy is not weak. Achieving the Iran nuclear deal had real costs, e.g. to Iranians who suffered under sanctions, to Syrians. In war, diplomacy can help deconflict military ops, avoid/mitigate mistakes like sinking an unarmed Iranian ship that was visiting India, mitigate refugee flows, etc. 10/ But you need actual people in post who know the region. You cannot rely on real estate magnates who do not understand what the adversary is offering and who only care about making money after the war. You need people who know how to play hardball and whom to call to reassure behind the scenes. 11/ Whatever one thinks of the previous order in the Gulf, surely this is not the way to break it, with no capacity to rebuild it. In the most cynical sense, the US cannot get what it needs out of the aftermath without diplomacy. That's before you get to the human toll. And the loss of soft power. 12/ And apparently now we are going to pivot to Cuba. Before Venezuela, Trump yelled at regional leaders, e.g. in Colombia. Zero evidence of any diplomatic effort now. He is just spouting to reporters that Cuba is next, and it's Rubio's dearest, longstanding wish. 13/ Blowtorching diplomatic and humanitarian capacity while burning through military capabilities and alienating allies is malpractice of the highest order by the Secretary of State, the nation's top DIPLOMAT, and by the National Security Advisor. It does not help the military to kill US diplomacy. 14/ Whatever happens, even miraculous Venezuela-like stability in Iran and/or Cuba, the end of US diplomacy as we knew it weakens the US. Diplomacy is a tool of power, we had the best, and we blew it up deliberately. These waters are plenty charted, and they are full of icebergs. 15/15