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Emma Monk
Emma Monk

As misleading headlines go, that has to be up there with some of the worst! As is the claim that "Immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s." The "shocking new study" does NOT show that at all 🙄 🧵 1/21

To be fair to the Express, the "shocking new study" also ran with a hugely misleading headline🤷‍♀️ Just for context, CSJ is Tory-founded (Ian Duncan Smith & Tim Montgomerie), Centre-Right think tank with a pretty poor funding transparency rating. So what did the report ACTUALLY say? 2/

They looked at how many UK National under-25s were in payrolled employment in Jan 2020 and compared it to Dec 2025 (a 6-year period) And then did the same for non-EU under-25s They then divided the GROWTH in non-EU nationals by the GROWTH in UK nationals and found it was 27 times larger. 3/

This is what the difference in GROWTH looks like. This is where the 27 to 1 number comes from. But that does NOT show that 27 non-EU migrants were hired for every Brit in this age group! 4/

Because, to state the blindingly obvious, in a group with an 8-year age range, the vast majority will be NEW over a 6 years period. Most will be been HIRED during this time frame by virtue of becoming old enough to enter that age group. 5/ The report claims that only the ADDITIONAL 10,800 over that time frame have "been hired" over the 5 years! That is obviously complete nonsense. Anyone aged 19-24 in 2020 will be in the next age bracket. Only the 16-18-year-olds in 2020 are still in this group 6/ And 94% of 16 and 17-year-olds would have been in education or training in 2020. So the vast, vast majority of Under 25s in employment NOW have been hired SINCE 2020... So let's look at what the real number should be... 7/

Here are the figures comparing UK and non-EU nationals in Jan 2020 and in Dec 2025 In 2025, it was 3.85 million vs 0.37 million So there are actually 10 times as many UK U25s in paid employment as there are non-EU U25s And the VAST MAJORITY were hired after Jan 2020 8/

🚨10 TIMES AS MANY YOUNG BRITS HIRED AS YOUNG NON-EU NATIONALS🚨 But 👆🏼 isn't going to make any headlines anytime soon!🤷‍♀️ 9/ So let's take a look at the wider picture... Because there's a reason why they wanted to start in 2020 and only look at non-EU Nationals...🤔 Here is the data from 2014 (that's the full dataset they had), looking at: 🔵UK Nationals 🟢EU Nationals 🔴Non-EU Nationals 10/

And here's what's going on when you zoom into the tiny non-UK fraction. I wonder what happened to cause the drop off of young EU-nationals and the increase in non-EU nationals around 2020 🤔 Anyone....? Cough....Brexit....Cough 😉 11/

And if we look at changes over the 2020-25 timescale specifically? Would you look at that! It's almost as if a whole load of non-EU nationals came here after Brexit to help do the jobs that EU nationals were previously fulfilling 🤷‍♀️ (Yes, I know it's not *that* simplistic, but it's not far off!)

So, putting it all in context👇 Given: 🔵 ~95% of 16-17 year olds are in education or training 🔵 As are ~50% of 18-24 year olds 🔵 The 6-year timescale for an 8-year age bracket We can safely assume the overwhelming majority of those hires are "new" 13/

The number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) IS rising (although it actually fell last year) And it IS a problem - especially for those young people (Not the focus of much of the press!🙄) But again, some context is important when you're reading the headlines

Here it is over a longer time frame... Again, I'm not saying it's not a problem - it really is a problem for young people - but it feels very hyperbolic in the press right now with all the wrong focus - "welfare costs" and "lazy youth" narratives aren't helpful! 15/

Youth unemployment is below where it was in the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and the 2008-2013 period. Again - it's not in a great place, but it's also not the mass historic event it's being portrayed as... 16/

So no, Mr Yusuf, that 👇 is absolute nonsense. The data actually shows: 10 TIMES AS MANY Young Brits hired as young non-EU nationals 17/

And no, this data does NOT show: "immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s" It doesn't show anything of the sort.🤦‍♀️🤯 18/

This so-called report was always going to get lots of traction It combines foreigners with unemployed youths What's not to like if you're the right-wing press? 🙄 But it is wildly misleading 19/ And a woeful indictment on how far the Centre-Right have fallen that they can produce such a statistically illiterate report. They can't have actually believed that conclusion. It doesn't pass even the most rudimentary sniff test. But the "think-tank" produced it anyway🤦‍♀️ 20/ If you like these kind of debunks, please do sign up for my Substack: monkdebunks.substack.com It's free 👍🏻 However, paid subscriptions and coffee (or ice cream!) donations (buymeacoffee.com) really help 😜 Have a nice weekend! 21/

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Great point 👇🏼 bsky.app

Dan Sohege
Dan Sohege05/30/26

Great how CSJ's report came out in the same week as the actual independent review into youth unemployment, which specifically found that immigration was not a main driver of youth unemployment. gov.uk

1 / 20
Express Headline: Twenty-seven young foreign workers hired for every one Brit as immigration fuels unemployment crisis. Immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s, according to a shocking new study.
Study report from the Centre for Social Justice. Title: 27 young non-EU migrants hired for every young Brit since 2020, analysis reveals
From the report: Between January 2020 and December 2025, non-EU under-25 payrolled employment increased from 81,500 to 370,900, a rise of 289,400 or 355 per cent. UK-national under-25 payrolled employments increased from 3,841,500 to 3,852,300, a rise of 10,800.
Graph showing employment growth among under-25s: UK nationals increased by 10,800 while non-EU nationals grew by 289,400 since January 2020.
Statistics show 94.1% of 16-17-year-olds will be in education or training by 2025, while 1.9% will be employed.
Bar graphs show UK nationals employed under 25 rising from 3.84M to 3.85M, while non-EU nationals increased from 81.5K to 370.9K.
Graph showing UK National, EU National, and Non-EU National employment trends for under-25s from December 2014 to December 2025.
Graph shows UK employment trends for under-25s, with EU nationals declining and non-EU nationals increasing since around 2020.
A chart shows changes in under-25 employment from 2020: UK nationals increased by 10,800, EU nationals decreased by 175,000, and non-EU nationals rose by 289,400.
Bar chart showing UK under-25 payrolled employment for UK, EU, and non-EU nationals between January 2020 and December 2025.
Data chart showing 2025 projections for youth aged 16-24: 58.6% in education, 28.1% employed, 6% unemployed, 13.3% NEET.
A bar graph illustrates trends in NEET statistics from 2010 to 2025, highlighting education, employment, and inactivity rates.
Graph shows NEET rates from 2000 to 2025, highlighting trends and fluctuations related to age groups 16-17 and 18-24.
Line chart depicts the trend of male youth unemployment in the UK from 1984 to early 2026, showing fluctuations over the decades.
Graph showing UK youth unemployment (aged 16-24) from 1984 to 2026, illustrating fluctuations and trends over the years.
A graphic debunking the claim that 27 non-EU migrants are hired for every young Brit, with statistics on youth employment in the UK.
Express Headline Debunked!: Twenty-seven young foreign workers hired for every one Brit as immigration fuels unemployment crisis. Immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s, according to a shocking new study.
277. The relationship between immigration and the youth labour market needs to be treated carefully. This review does not find evidence that migration is a primary driver of rising NEET levels. The main forces identified in this chapter lie elsewhere: weaker entry routes, a harder transition into work, and a labour market that has become less effective at bringing young people in.
278. That does not mean migration is irrelevant. Young people and migrant workers may compete for some of the same jobs, particularly in lower-paid sectors. Net migration has been historically high over recent years, concentrated in the sectors that serve as primary entry points for young workers: hospitality, social care, food processing, warehousing, agriculture. In hospitality for example, 31% of workers are Migrant workers typically have arrived with prior experience and a willingness to work irregular hours. If an employer has a choice between someone who is 28 with five years of experience and some who is 18 with no work history, the hiring decision can be economically rational. immigrants and 36% young. [footnote 260] 279. But the relationship between migration and youth employment is not straightforward. The effect depends on how employers recruit, how labour demand adjusts, and whether changes in migration alter the number, quality and conditions of jobs on offer. The current evidence does not support a simple displacement story.
283. Conversely, it could be argued that too many employers have been on 'easy street' for too long, able to source labour from overseas whilst ignoring labour supply closer to home. Now they face the consequences, alongside a sharp dilemma. The question is whether they are prepared to change their recruitment, on-boarding and employment practices to attract more young workers from the UK into their workplaces. Lower migration will not, by itself, solve the problems described in this chapter. A reduction in labour supply from overseas does not automatically create better opportunities for young people from the UK. It is possible that we will see employers responding to hard-to-fill vacancies by upskilling existing staff or extending their hours of work rather than recruiting new workers. Much depends on whether employers are willing to change their recruitment behaviour and whether public policy will aid them in doing so. But falling levels of net migration could create a big potential opportunity for helping address the NEET crisis if both can be made to happen in tandem. If government wants more young people in work, it will need to influence employers' behaviour, entry routes, and the systems that support transition into employment.

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