With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave. The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*. #COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG 🧵
I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture. 🧵 NB.1.8.1 is descended from XDV.1.5.1. XDV was a recombinant of XDE and JN.1. XDE was a recombinant of GW.5.1 and FL.13.4 (both descended from XBB), so this represents the last current variant with any non-JN.1 ancestry. 🧵 XDV.1 added the F456L mutation, then XDV.1.5 added G184S and K478I. NB.1 then added Spike mutations: T22N and F59S. Then NB.1.8 added the Spike Q493E mutation that characterised KP.3.1 FLuQE – an example of convergent evolution. Finally NB.1.8.1 added the A435S mutation. 🧵 NB.1.8.1 was initially reported from Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in several other countries in the region, plus Canada and the US - all adding to its credibility. 🧵
Globally, the XDV.* variant clan is showing a strong but slowing growth advantage of 5.5% per day (29% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That now predicts a crossover in late May. Strong growth advantages like that could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.*. 🧵
XFG is a recombinant of LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, with a presumed origin in Quebec. XFG.* has shown strong recent growth in the Netherlands to 16%, and in the US to 12%. 🧵
Globally, the XFG.* variant is showing a strong growth advantage of 6.2% per day (43% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That predicts a crossover in late May. Strong growth advantages like that could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.*. 🧵
I will stick with the XDV.* clan led by NB.1.8.1 as the leading contender, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. But XFG.* is mounting a serious challenge, based on the latest data, especially in Europe and North America. I will continue to monitor this topic. 🧵
The usual caveats apply - recent sample sizes are smaller which might skew these results, and “global” sequencing data is dominated by wealthy countries, with many under-sampled regions. 🧵 Huge thanks to Federico Gueli for his tips on new lineages to watch out for, eg bsky.app 🧵
NB.1.8.1 is growing fast in the indo pacific regions of Asia and Oceania doing an apparent variant sweep, how deep it will go still unclear due the presence of another fast lineage as XFG and , others lineages which are slower than it as XFJ(and alike) and XFC. The opposite question re the atlantic
Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here: github.com 🧵 ends
github.com