My line on BBCr4 Today on the Iran strikes was this. Last June there were intensive US/Iran talks under way. Aborted by Israeli strikes on Iran which US joined. I think this is similar. The US-Iran-Oman talks seemed to be going well. Netanyahu preempted, and Trump felt he had to follow 1/5 The momentum of the build up has carried Trump into war, with no achievable political objective. He can’t bomb Iran into renouncing the right to enrich. Or eliminate every missile. Now he seems to be hinting at regime change -or as Justin Webb put to me quoting Niall Ferguson, regime adjustment’ 2/5 Decapitation strikes on the leadership won’t produce regime change, as there is no organised opposition to take over. They might provoke regime collapse/chaos. Probable outcome: IRGC strongmen take over. Chaos would suit Netanyahu, reducing the threat from Iran to Israel before their elections. 3/5 But Gulf states would hate it, and there w’d probably be more internal oppression. As for regime adjustment, it’s surely an illusion that US bombing would enable a group of leaders more willing to work with the West to emerge. Changes like that will only come from within Iran. 4/5 In short, the US and Israel have started this war with vague and unachievable objectives, with no int law base, and little or no support from Gulf states or other US allies. If Iran succeeds in hitting US/Israeli targets or disrupts oil exports, Trump will find using mil force is not risk free. End