Russia's official borrowing plan announcement for 2026Q4 has a new asterisk that wasn't there last year. They say they aim to borrow 2.45tr rub* "* Subject to the additional financing needs associated with the federal budget deficit in 2026." Are they going to do some later-year shenanigans?
Their official plan is not published, we only have bits and pieces and I've identified a gap that appears to be 3.3tr rub, which they say they will cover with accounts that, as of last reporting on 1/1/2025, had just 1.63tr rub in them. Russia's actions could be very revealing here.
I still can't find Russia's financing plan for the 2026 deficit. The more info that comes out, the more it seems like there's an unexplained financing gap that I currently estimate at around 3.3tr rub.
Here are options I see š(A) deficit ends up much smaller š(B) Cover over 1.6tr rub with their own accounts š(C) Cover much of the rest with "swept balances" š(D) Borrow more, use the wealth fund, draw down the oil & gas fiscal rule account š(E) Print money, sell CBR gold, something else And interpretations: š(A) depends how they do it š(B) would suck, it would mean they have more money than we know about š(C) Desperate, temporary move š(D) The obvious move š(E) Desperate new move If it's (C), (D) or (E) then that's strong evidence that Russia has used up its various money pots - there's no hidden financial firepower. We can see what they've got and can finally see their financial exhaustion arriving. BUT: they are censoring info and unless they release official data tables, we might not be able to tell the difference between (B) using federal money and (C) doing a temporary financing trick with "swept" money that has to be paid back soon. I don't know if this trick is legal, but I'm watching. Back to the main point: (D) seems the most obvious. They could borrow more than planned, use NWF yuan and gold, or the special fiscal rule account for refilling the NWF. The fiscal rule account could get them ~1.1tr rub, for example. Or... they could try to borrow. My gut feeling is that the new asterisk on the Q4 table is them leaving the door open to borrow more. But they don't want to spook investors; yields are crazy high. If they said "we need to borrow 2tr more" that might drive Federal finance costs even higher. IMO, maybe they're keeping doors open. They'll see VAT receipts, oil&gas prices are, etc after Oct/Nov. If those don't save them, they might decide to say: "People love our bonds, we'll borrow X tr rub more because that's so awesome" or make a "surprise" withdrawal from the wealth fund.