I still can't find Russia's financing plan for the 2026 deficit. The more info that comes out, the more it seems like there's an unexplained financing gap that I currently estimate at around 3.3tr rub. Firstly: this is accounting. To follow this, I had to stop believing my feelings about how money *should* work, and instead read Russian documents to work out how their accounting is defined. Here's a first identity: Deficit = Financing. If there is a deficit, the financing MUST equal it. Then another: Deficit = expenses - revenues Russia has rules as to what counts as an expense and what counts as revenue. You might think "they get money so that's revenue" or "they send money so that's an expense". No no no. There are rules. You have to stop assuming and follow the rules. E.g. Russia auctions bonds. Investors give money to Russia at the auction & return the bond on maturity and get money back. Bond "face value" is usually 1k rub. There are complicated expense things when the auction price is not 1k rub, so let's ignore that and pretend the bond sells for 1k rub. When Russia gets 1k rub at auction, that is not revenue or an expense. It is a POSITIVE source of financing. Because it provides money for the deficit and remember: Deficit = Financing. The signs must match too. More deficit = needs more financing = money for the deficit is positive financing. When bonds mature, Russia has to repay the investor, so 1k goes from the government to the bondholder. That is not an expense, it is negative financing. Yes I know, people have argued with me over this: go look at any funding appendix for a Russian budget. Below is a translated screenshot from Russia's 2024 executed budget law for "sources of financing". There's an entry for -1,436,435,976.6 thousand rub. That is the money repaid for maturing bonds. When a bond is originally sold for 1k rub, the money in and money out are sources of financing.
Another thing that's tricky and important is Russia's "fiscal rule". Effectively: when oil prices are above a regulated level, Russia has to put money into a special transfer account for refilling the National Wealth Fund (NWF). @prune602.bsky.social calls this account the 🪣. They fill the 🪣 with yuan and gold, then at some point deposit it into the NWF. Usually the money in one year is deposited into the NWF the following year. See this thread from 2025 when Russia emptied the 🪣's load from Jan 2024 through Feb 2025. The NWF suddenly gained gold & yuan.
‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update As of July 2025: The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds: 👉 214.8207 Billion Yuan (+61.1226 billion) 👉 211.9539 tons of gold (+72.4448 tons) 👉 2.5255 Billion Rubles (+1.2542 billion) And that’s it. (Totals for June)
I mention this because the money going into the 🪣 does not appear on the deficit. It is not an expense or a revenue, it is a source of "financing for the deficit". Except it's taking money away from the budget, so it's negative. Once again, here's the funding appendix for the 2024 budget. The red outline shows deposits into (negative) and withdrawals from (positive) this 🪣 during 2024. This is important because Russia has said clearly that they intend to refill the 🪣 during 2026. This is NEGATIVE financing.
OK, so let's finally get to the numbers. The deficit will apparently be 7.345tr rub. Remember the equation: Deficit = Financing 7.345tr rub = Financing The official tables aren't out, but the Finance Minister says 1.082tr rub will go into the bucket. 🪣 Source: interfax.com
interfax.com
Deficit = Financing 7.345tr rub = Net domestic borrowing + Net "external" (non-rub) borrowing + 🪣 + other + NWF. So it seems the 🪣 = -1.082tr (remember, negative means they're sending money away). Original external was -0.512tr (source: base.garant.ru) so let's assume that.
base.garant.ru
And the NWF withdrawals from Jan-March are included in the plan as +0.459tr. That leaves: 7.345tr rub = Net domestic borrowing + Net "external" (non-rub) borrowing + 🪣 + other + NWF. Then: 7.345tr rub = Net domestic borrowing - 0.512 -1.082 + other +0.459 Gathering terms: Net financing = 7.345tr + 0.512 + 1.082 - 0.459 = Net domestic borrowing + other Net financing = 8.48tr rub = net domestic borrowing + other And net domestic borrowing = 6.45tr gross - 1.3 something redeemed = about 5.1tr rub So: Other = ~3.3tr rub? [INTERMISSION] Reminder: I haven't seen the new 2026 budget financing appendix. I looked but can't find it. If we take official russian public announcements at face value, then they have not explained the split of where 3.3tr rub of deficit financing will come from. Officially, Russia says "account balances" will play a role. Maybe they can cover 3.3tr rub? But ... An official Russian Accounts Chamber document said that on 1/1/2025 the accounts held a lot of cash that doesn't belong to the federal budget. Only 1.630tr rub in treasury accounts was available.
Section 15.8 includes the pictured text (Russian and English). I could use help confirming understanding. For the 1st Jan 2025: 5.2749tr rub were transferred from elsewhere "to ensure the liquidity ... and are subject to return to the accounts from which they were previously transferred."
So... I'm stumped. Russian public statements don't add up, there are trillions of rubles of deficit financing missing. They also recently censored data on how much cash is in the treasury account system, as it kept dwindling. They have options, but why are they being so shifty about it?