My interpretation: Russia's construction industry has been propped up by massive mortgage subsidies. Russia is now effectively ending those. There are many possible scenarios, but in a scenario with high interest rates, Russian construction should feel real pain over the next year or so.
Russia has introduced differentiated mortgage subsidies after all, so bad luck housebuilders. Big families still get big subsidies, but the vast majority (the Russian fertility rate is 1.37) not so much, while those in Moscow or St Petersburg (c.41% of all new mortgages in August) get even less.
I'm less informed here than on Russian budget financing, and I'm no finance pro, so I'll spell out my thinking and perhaps real experts can correct me. It seems like construction responds to demand. If people are paying for housing, construction happens. Construction has a bit of a lag. When companies are confident about demand, they start building. It takes time - you need to lock in land, financing, permits etc. Then you build. So the building happens months (even years) after a construction company decided "there's demand". Russia saw huge, sustained demand from massively subsidised mortgages until ~2025. Some of the building that's happening now is in response to that demand. Then there were falling rates + ongoing subsidies helping prevent a collapse in mortgages until now. More than half of all new mortgage volume in Russia has been subsidised for years. Russia is cutting back on subsidies hard, likely because the federal budget cannot afford this. There are so many possibilities, but I think it's worth considering the one with higher interest rates. Russia has repeatedly projected rates falling far faster than reality. Long-term bond yields imply investors pricing in some risks - high inflation and/or rates and/or russia defaulting etc. If rates stay higher and inflation doesn't run away, I think that should make mortgages less attractive. If russians struggle to get mortgages, demand for housing should drop and then, as I suggested above, construction *follows*. I don't think we've seen the real pain hit the Russian construction industry yet. There's hope that things will get much, much worse for them. Other scenarios are possible; russia is probably counting on interest rates falling and the market sustaining enough. I'd point out: people get excited about share prices of russian construction companies like Samolet. When interpreting share prices, remember that buyers have all the info we do. They will be paying for shares based on the full knowledge about these changes in mortgage subsidies. So the price should already account for all of these factors. Tldr my interpretation; Russia is about to drastically cut mortgage support to fund the war. Their construction industry now faces uncertainty: if interest rates and inflation go one way, the real pain should start building soon. They've done so much to delay and hide pain. It will get worse.