How much cash do Russian regions have stored away to cover deficits? This Russian source I found suggests: 👉They had 2.9tr rub on 1st Jan 2025 👉They had 1.9tr rub on 1st Jan 2026 1.9tr rub = ~1.5 months of regional expenses. Source: en.raexpert.ru
Based on Jan-Aug 2026 data and past budget year patterns, they have an expected funding gap in 2026 of 5.5-7.0tr rub. In 2025 the gap was 5.5tr rub. ~4tr filled by money transferred from the federal budget, leaving a deficit of ~1.5tr rub. So far the federal budget transfers are down by just over 1%. Expenses are up ~5.6%, i.e. below inflation, i.e. regions are already making real-terms cuts to expenses. It's not enough: the current trend is for Russia's regions to end with a deficit of 1.5-3.0tr rub. Yet again, Russia is punting. They're probably hoping for surprise new revenue sources, but if that fails the regions are in a sticky spot. 1.9tr rub is left in accounts and their current path would need 1.5-3.0tr rub funding this year. Will they find more money, or make deeper cuts?