1. European and UK ministers are still talking as if their biggest potential security problem is a withdrawal of US support. But that is not their biggest potential security problem. It’s that, under Trump, the US will back Putin not just diplomatically but also militarily. 🧵 2. By reciting Russian propaganda and slating Zelenskyy, Trump has made it clear that he has not switched to neutrality towards Ukraine, but to active diplomatic hostility. What, we should be asking, now prevents him from shifting to active military hostility, arming and supporting Russia? 3. This, I suspect, is how Donald Trump sees the situation: Russia is no threat to US political and economic hegemony. He and Putin are natural allies and will reinforce each other's power. But Europe could be. So he’ll use Russia to threaten, tie up and, potentially, dismantle the EU. 4. If Putin overruns Ukraine – I mean all of it – as he surely will if he receives active US support, he can then present an ultimatum to other frontline member states: leave the EU, leave NATO and become a client state like Belarus, or you’re next. 5. Orbán might agree to this. If Georgescu wins in Romania, he might too. The EU is then dead in all but name. (I’m assuming that NATO has already passed away, dying on 19 February 2025, though the certificate won’t be issued for a while). 6. European states (inc the UK) share intelligence with the US. This could now be the equivalent of sharing it with Putin. The US has multiple bases in our countries. The UK's nuclear weapons are dependent on the US for maintenance and prob more. If the US is our enemy, it's already inside the gates 7. Is anyone ready for this? Plainly not. Is anyone gaming it? Aware of just what it means? Recognising that the shift is far more profound and consequential than ministers are admitting in public? I hope so. Does anyone have the faintest idea what to do? I doubt it. 8. In answer to some of the responses: a. No, of course I don't want this to happen! Just the opposite, which is why I'm sketching out the potential danger. b. No, I have no idea how *likely* it is. But I feel it would be deeply foolish not to consider it. c. No, I don't have a plan. 9. I greatly welcome your thoughts and ideas. Thanks. The thread on one page: skywriter.blue
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