1-11 Trump regime considers abandoning the post of Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), the top military job within NATO. They are also considering scaling back a previously planned increase in force presence in Japan. nbcnews.com
www.nbcnews.com
2-11 This is accompanied by talk of cost savings, but the expected savings are extremely small compared to the total US defence budget, whereas the changes - esp. the NATO one - are strategically enormous. => this is definitely not motivated by cost savings; a major change in posture is the goal. 3-11 No longer having a U.S. Commander leading European defence logically goes with no longer having significant U.S. forces under NATO at all. How could the US have, say, tens of thousands of troops in Europe and major assets, all commanded by a European Commander? The U.S. wouldn't do that. 4-11 Two moves would be consistent with this: 1: leave Europe completely, or 2: stay in Europe but outside of NATO's common structures 2 is much likelier than 1, but one could also have 2 with a smaller, more "surgical" force presence. 5-11 I'd see this as: - very significant disengagement from the collective defence of Europe; - a gift to Russia; - a switch to bilateral deals with individual European states; - staying out of collective Art. 5 responses; - but retaining influence & information on Art. 5 responses 6-11 It would be a way of leaving NATO without formally leaving NATO, though that could come later, and maybe ultimately at the request of Europeans; or staying in while damaging it. As a member, the U.S. could block NATO decisions while no longer having its forces subjected to it. 7-11 The bilateral part could focus on: - states essential for vital US needs (UK comes to mind) - political-ideological alignment (Trump- and Putin-friendly states, e.g. Hungary) The overall set-up could be very dangerous for small exposed allies, especially Baltic states. 8-11 If Trump is honest about his concept of only defending allies "who pay", then Baltics can be on the right side: they are and will remain in a 3% - 5% of GDP range. But if there's an extra layer of pro-Russian ill-intent, Trump will find ways of betraying the Baltics. 9-11 Trumpist USA will remain committed to Israel, therefore future force presence in Europe will partly be about that, bearing in mind increasing 3-way US-Russia-Israel coordination and compromises. Israel has already invested heavily in getting along with Moscow while keeping US as Nr. 1. 10-11 The final part of the NBC article briefly mentions Japan, too. This is significant. It suggests the U.S. isn't fully serious about a traditional military containment of China. The tone is more respectful and supportive towards Pacific Rim allies, but... 11-11 ... Pacific Rim allies cannot assume that a Trumpist America would go to hell and back to save them. It's a different country now. The more Pacific Rim allies can do for themselves, and without dependence on American whims, the better.