Russia in September at the height of the harvest sold a total of 41 sold domestically produced harvesters. Grain superpower ladies and gentlemen. Here's the kicker. October was worse. If you own a dealership leveraged to the gills how do you even get out of bed in the morning?
Sales of Russian domestically produced agricultural equipment on the domestic market for Q1-Q3 rose by 3% to 120,7 billion rubles. Exports rose by 9,3% to 14,1 billion rubles. The largest year over year growth was for grain harvesters by 33,4% to 2 090 units. Tractor sales went up by 2,7% to 2 020 units. In H1 2026 domestic sales were growing much faster at 11,2% after which the sales again started to contract. In September 2026 grain harvester sales dropped by 65,3% year over year to just 41 units. Tractor sales for the month dropped by 30% to 182 units. What's even worse sales in October according to market participants were even higher. At the start of 2025 sales were low which was followed by Dom RF providing a preferential leasing program that stabilized sales. Currently because the sale price of grain is below the cost to produce Russian farmers are unwilling to invest. Due to the high interest costs and the virtual closure of the Black Sea for exports the gains in sales in H1 have been completely erased by now. Currently the optimistic scenario for the industry is that sales remain at the 2025 level. If the current situation persists by the end of 2026 the drop in sales may be 5-10% or even as high as 15% according to some Russian analysts. For a reversal either the preferential leasing program has to be expanded or the state must buy grain from farmers at a high price. Dealers are facing loan repayment deadlines by the end of 2026 and if they don't reach an agreement with their creditors the consequences will be severe. The start of 2027 will be very weak for the market if the grain export situation is not reversed. Source: kommersant.ru
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