The Ukrainian drone strikes on ships in the Blacks Sea have forced tanker owners to refuse to move oil from Novorossiysk at any cost. For the period of August 1st to 21st Russian and Kazakh oil exports dropped by 26% and from the port of Novorossiysk by 60%.
Exports of Russian and Kazakh oil from Novorossiysk and the Baltic ports decreased by 26% month over month for the period August 1st to August 21st. The biggest drop was 60% for the shipments of Ural, Siberian Light and Kazakh Kebco oils from Novorossiysk. Shipments from that port were down 1,21 million tons and the decrease was due to a lack of ships available. The cost to charter ships to move oil and oil products from Novorossiysk is rising due to risk premiums and a lot of ship owners are choosing not to send ships there. Russian oil exports from Novorossiysk to India dropped 77% to 516 000 tons and to China by 1/3rd to 94 000 tons. There were no shipments to Turkey and Egypt in August whilst such existed in July. Shipments of Ural and Kebco oil from the Baltic dropped by 4,75%. They totaled 4,8 million tons. The largest share of shipments from the Baltic fell to Ural oil to India which was still 44% lower at 1,92 million tons. Shipments to China stayed at the same level of 350 000 tons and shipments to Turkey decreased by 44% to 405 000 tons. However this will have to be adjusted as 2 million tons of oil was shipped from the Baltic without a specific destination. ESPO oil exports from Kozmino in the Russian Far East increased to 2,14% to to 2,8 million tons. Shipments from Kozmino to China stayed at the same level at 2,37 million tons whilst those to India decreased by 37,5% to 216 000 tons and there were two separate 100 000 ton shipments with no given destination. Discounts for Ural oil under FOB conditions from the Baltic remained unchanged at 24,8 USD per barrel when compared to Dated Brent. Over the week of August 21st the price for this oil rose by 2,67 USD per barrel to 69,62 USD per barrel. However price increases are being offset by higher freight rates as Russian companies are trying to reroute oil from Novorossiysk to the Baltic. Prices at that time for Ural in Novorossiysk were at 69,22 USD per barrel with the discounts in the range 25,20-26,15 USD per barrel. How much the shipment of oil from Novorossiysk will decrease will depend on how long Ukrainian strikes continue to target ships there. Currently ship owners are unwilling to sent their tankers to pick up oil from that port regardless of the price offered. Currently Russian oil discounts are the highest they have been over the last 3 years reaching 25-30 USD per barrel. Only early in the EU embargo on oil om 2023 were discounts higher reaching over 30 USD per barrel. But according to Ru experts the discounts are unlikely to grow any further in the coming months as they depend not just on the risk but also on absolute price of Brent. Regardless of the price however Russian oil production will be impacted and it's still behind the OPEC+ quota. Source: kommersant.ru
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