1/ Ukraine has taken a reported 250 Russian prisoners and claims to have killed 2,000 more Russians in its ongoing Operation Vivaldi near Lyman. A Russian warblogger says that Ukraine has overturned Russian assumptions about its capabilities. ⬇️
2/ Reviewing the recent Ukrainian advances, 'Artjockey' posts a sober assessment of how Ukraine has managed to confound Russian expectations and collapse the Russian salient that was threatening Lyman from the north: 3/ "Following the events of recent weeks, many have begun to wonder: how are the Ukrainian Armed Forces able to carry out operations like the ongoing "Vivaldi" operation? 4/ "For a long time, we lived under the belief that fighting with anything other than small and ultra-small infantry groups was impossible, but this assumption has been refuted once again, again by Ukraine. 5/ "This all bears a striking resemblance to the invasion of Kursk Oblast, which took place over two years ago, which also refuted the hypothesis that it is impossible to undetectedly amass sufficient forces for such an operation under modern conditions. 6/ "The secret behind the Ukrainian Armed Forces' actions is actually very simple: they are literally following the tactics I described repeatedly, if not in my blog, then in the comments and in my chat several years ago. 7/ "To break the stalemate on the front, all that is needed is to: ▪️ Secretly accumulate reserves, which is especially convenient if your enemy believes that you have no people and everyone is about to run away; 8/ "▪️Conduct high-quality reconnaissance, that is, find real command posts, warehouses, personnel quarters, UAV launch points, supply routes, and so on, and not empty sheds; 9/ "▪️Disrupt the enemy's logistics so that by the time you attack, they have a shortage of various material resources, from shells to toilet paper; 10/ "▪️Conduct high-quality electronic reconnaissance, identify all types of UAVs used in the offensive area and the frequencies used, so that at the moment of the offensive they can be completely covered by your electronic warfare,… 11/ …and accordingly prepare your electronic warfare and your UAVs so that they fly on available frequencies that are not used by the enemy and will not be suppressed; 12/ "▪️At the start of the offensive, destroy or at least suppress all targets identified by reconnaissance using all available forces and means, from aircraft to UAVs, from artillery to kamikaze drones. 13/ "Evaluation of results must be objective, and actions must be prompt. To ensure this, all forces and means participating in the operation must be subordinate to its commander. 14/ "To avoid situations where, for example, the Air Force are not sent out a second time because they have already reported all targets destroyed. 15/ "▪️After aviation, artillery, and our own UAVs have engaged or suppressed the identified targets, including enemy UAV launch sites, our own assault infantry can advance, whether in armoured fighting vehicles, on motorcycles, or even on foot, depending on the conditions. 16/ "But I'm not some brilliant strategist; this is a grossly oversimplified retelling of any manual. In short, all this is called combined arms combat, and that's where the secret of the Ukrainian Armed Forces lies. 17/ "This isn't the first time I'll refer you to Michael Kofman [@michaelkofman.bsky.social], who wrote back in early spring that the Ukrainian army is re-mastering this forgotten art, and look how right he was: we're seeing the results in the second half of 2026. 18/ "Speaking of specifics, various materials are already appearing about how exactly "Vivaldi" was organized, with direct testimony from its participants. And really, I don't even have anything to say; they literally acted "according to the manual": 19/ – "Moreover, in areas where we are conducting an offensive, we actively use ground-based robotic systems and electronic warfare systems, which allows us to advance in some areas completely unnoticed by the enemy,… 20/ …in order to either encircle them or approach them at critically close range, where the infantry is already working. 21/ – "Secondly, of course, this is intelligence work. It's great that the Third Assault Group and the units working with it managed to suppress the relevant sources of potential resistance and immediately kill them, to be clear, kill them all, so they couldn't put up any resistance there." 22/ "Of course, in addition to good organisation, there were also some technical innovations, such as the active use of unmanned ground vehicles.The Third Assault Corps, according to their own statements, actively used UGVs to clear mines before assaults, used kamikaze UGVs… 23/ …with two grenade launchers—they would first fire two shots at a building where Russian soldiers were presumably located, and then drive inside and detonate—as well as UGVs dropped from UAVs. Hornets also played a major role, largely cutting off logistics. 24/ "While all this might have reduced losses or simplified certain stages, it's unlikely to have been the key to success.The fundamental principle remains that some Ukrainian commanders, in the fifth year of the war, "learned to fight," that is,… 25/ …to plan and execute large-scale operations using the resources available to them. It's unlikely that this operation would have occurred without the Hornets, you see? 26/ "I want to convey a simple idea: there's no secret to Operation Vivaldi. Its success isn't due to American satellites or the use of Palantir, which has already become an article of faith in z-blogs [pro-war Russian blogs]. 27/ "It's all quite simple, at least in theory, and that's the main challenge: turning theory into practice, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed it. Moreover, not the entire Ukrainian army can fight like this; on the contrary, only a minority, and not just the 3rd Corps. 28/ "However, this means that other Ukrainian units will adopt the Vivaldi experience, both indirectly, by observing what their neighbors are doing, and directly, when 3rd Army Corps officers are promoted and take up positions in other units, implementing the practices they know. 29/ "Perhaps we are already witnessing that very same turning point on the front, similar to the end of World War I, when two methods were devised to break the trench. But for now, only one exists, and only in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 30/ "If the Russian Armed Forces fail to adapt quickly, then the next year, even in military terms, promises to be very, very interesting." /end Source: t.me