1/ Russian forces in the Lyman area have fallen back to a line along the Zherebets river according to Russian warbloggers, with fighting ongoing in areas of the formerly Russian-held salient. They warn that Ukraine's counteroffensive is now working towards crossing the river. ⬇️
2/ Oleg Tsarov reports that "Russian forces are holding positions on the western bank of the Zherebets River, preventing the enemy from crossing the water barrier." The state-linked 'Rybar' Telegram channel summarises its view of the situation: 3/ "By early September, the full extent of the Ukrainian advance in the Lyman sector had become clear. After regaining positions on the former Sviatohirsk salient, the AFU were able to free up significant reserves to launch attacks toward the Zherebets River.
4/ "During the second ten-day period of the month, the enemy began pushing north along the river's right bank and reached the outskirts of Yampolivka. Simultaneously, the AFU attempted to expand their zone of control near Stavky and retake full control of Lyman itself. 5/ "In the northern sector, the enemy launched a series of attacks near Novoliubivka, aiming to drive a wedge into the formations of the "West" Group of Forces between Makiivka and Ivanivka. 6/ "On the southern flank, Ukrainian units regained positions in Staryi Karavan and Brusivka and made several attempts to break through to Yampil. 7/ "The situation in the sector remains difficult. Ukrainian forces are seeking to regain control over the territory between the Zherebets and Nitrius rivers and to threaten the northern flank of the "South" Group of Forces—a move that has already resulted in a series of… 8/ …counterattacks on the approaches to Sloviansk." 'Archangel of Special Forces' acknowledges that "the situation in the Lyman direction remains difficult." 9/ Ukraine, the channel says, is seeking to completely recapture the territory west of the Zherebets, and has made strong progress towards this goal. 10/ "Based on the actions of the 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the second stage will involve crossing the Zherebets River and establishing a foothold along the bank, at least along the line from Torove to Yampolivka. 11/ "If this point can be reached, the enemy will likely attempt to move towards the national park, and from the Brusivka area towards Yampol. The final stage, as it appears, is to capture Kremmina and the entire Serebryansky Forest. 12/ "This is not an attempt to spread pessimistic sentiments, but rather an analysis of what the enemy is doing and what they will try to do upon achieving the goals of the first stage – and what needs to be countered. 13/ "The Ukrainian Armed Forces, taking advantage of the forest cover and the uneven line of contact near Lyman, have an advantage. 14/ "The main task for the command of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies is to stabilize the front line in order to move to more advantageous tactical positions, where artillery and aviation can be more actively involved." 15/ 'Two Majors' says it can "confirm the assessments of our comrades from Arkhangel Spetsnaz. Except for Yampil, because there are already enough problems with that town." 16/ "The enemy's plan—to penetrate further, solving several problems at once, including those damned forests and entering our bank of the local river—is clear. 17/ "They want to halt the front's advance, create a threat/problem for the group advancing on Sloviansk, and saturate the area with modern sensors and cameras for the purpose of assigning alert fire weapons: they don't even need drones. 18/ "Arrival [of a projectile] within 30 seconds of activation is guaranteed." The channel scolds official propagandists for exaggerating Russia's battlefield successes and the effect they will have on negotiations: 19/ "And as for the backroom talk that's aimed at external audiences against the backdrop of the negotiations, we dismiss it: Trump couldn't care less who controls Yampil, Lyman, or any other settlement that's significant to us. He won't see that on the globe of America." 20/ Other warbloggers have blamed Russia's recent losses on false and partial reporting by commanders on the ground, who have incentives such as rewards and quotas to exaggerate or falsify their successes. 21/ 'Two Majors' echoes this, saying that "the system of reporting and quotas has become ingrained in the daily operations of many units and sub-units, which has a markedly negative impact on reports that attempt to anticipate events." 22/ "It's important to understand that the enemy didn't suddenly infiltrate and create problems only in September. Enemy counter-attacks began in the spring and summer in the northern sector, and now the aftermath of heavy fighting has simply come to the attention of the media… 23/ …(the enemy was silent, waiting for a pretext, which turned out to be the Yankees' visit to Kyiv) to deal us an additional information blow. 24/ "In this entire situation, it's important to emphasize that enemy counterattacks will continue. In 1945, even the Germans were organizing counteroffensives with their last remaining strength. 25/ "But here, it seems, we're not yet on the outskirts of the enemy capital. This is a war, and a complex one that has become very protracted. Simple, couch-based solutions won't do." /end Sources: 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me (Map from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social)