1/ Russia's agricultural industries are facing catastrophe due to Ukraine's long-range drone strikes against Black Sea ports and infrastructure. Harvesting grain now costs far more than selling it, and commentators say that the agricultural sector is "dying before our eyes". ⬇️
2/ Since mid-August, more than 90% of Russia's grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin has been offline following Ukrainian attacks and navigational restrictions, hitting the country's main export corridor during the peak of the harvesting season. 3/ The strikes have forced the suspension of operations at Novorossiysk's three grain terminals, which were the main hub for Russian grain exports. Navigation in the Sea of Azov has been suspended since July, and the Taman terminal halted operations in late July. 4/ In the 2025/26 season, Novorossiysk was the largest transshipment hub for agricultural products: over 21 million tons of grain were shipped abroad through its terminals. 5/ Port Kavkaz was second, handling over 10 million tons. River ports helped export 5.7 million tons, the port of Taman 3.2 million tons, and Tuapse nearly 2 million tons. All are now out of action. 6/ The only southern grain ports still in operation are those on the Caspian Sea (5 million tons in the 2025/26 season), the port of Vysotsky (1.3 million tons), and the port of Ust-Luga (0.3 million tons). Officials are now reportedly racing to expand their capacity. 7/ The overall impact on shipments has been drastic. Russia's July wheat exports were expected to fall to about 1.5 million metric tons, down roughly 30% from the same month a year earlier and less than half the five-year July average — the weakest July figure since 2017. 8/ Russia's average August exports over the last five years have stood at 5 million tons, but this August's figures have been predicted to be as low as 3 million tons. This has come at a bad time, as Russia has had a strong grain harvest of nearly 140 million tons. 9/ The harvested grain – along with many other cash crops – now has nowhere to go, with farmers stuck with growing inventories and few buyers. The head of the Russian Grain Union says that storage facilities are already full. 10/ Exporters have essentially stopped buying, and domestic prices for fourth-class wheat have fallen to about 12,000 rubles ($142) per ton, down from 15,000 rubles ($177) a year earlier, representing catastrophic losses for grain producers and exporters. 11/ Harvesting grain has now become more expensive than selling it. In the Rostov region, wheat prices have fallen to 5-6 rubles per kilogram, while the production cost of grain was 12-13 rubles per kilogram. Other cash crops are also affected by falling prices. 12/ Vyacheslav Legkodukh, Plenipotentiary Representative of the Kuban Governor for Interaction with Peasant Farmers, says: "I'm shocked every day by these text messages about the price getting lower and lower..." 13/ "Just now, a farmer from Yeysk called me and said, ' Vyacheslav Aleksandrovich, I just got a call – 4 rubles 50 kopecks for fifth-grade grain! Sunflower seeds were 19 rubles (per kg) yesterday, today they're 18!'" 14/ The Russian government is urgently trying to reroute grain exports to the Baltic Sea, but this means extra time and additional logistical costs. The rail infrastructure and port facilities are not currently capable of dealing with redirected Black Sea grain. 15/ Officials are recommending that growers hold off on selling their harvest until "better prices" are reached, but this is costly, as storage requires additional expenses for farmers. 16/ Russia's storage facilities are in any case very limited, as the government has historically not invested in elevators and granaries. They are built exclusively through private investment, and the number of processing plants has decreased in recent years. 17/ Farmers also need money to repay the loans they took out in the spring for sowing. The fuel crisis has become an additional factor in the economic disaster besetting Russian agriculture, with the cost of diesel doubling between April and August. 18/ 'Case for Smoking' comments: "The agricultural sector, which could have become one of the main drivers of the Russian economy, given a prudent government approach and adequate funding, is now dying before our eyes." 19/ "This wasn't even the case in the 1990s. We're being reassured that global market prices are rising, and we'll still be able to sell our harvest if we just have to be patient... But no one's saying how long we'll have to be patient." 20/ 'The Towers Stick Out' points out that "it's actually easier not to harvest wheat at all than to sell it for 8 rubles a kilogram (current prices) when the production cost is 12-13 rubles." 21/ The channel's author fears a "worst-case scenario ... that with wholesale grain prices falling and the inability to sell, Russian crop growers are left without the funds to prepare for the fall and spring, and they can't even pay off their loans." 22/ "The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has stated that the country's farmers must develop another 5 million hectares of land by 2030. Ridiculous...the question is, will there be farmers left in Russia by 2030?" /end Sources: 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me