1/ President Zelenskyy's warning that Ukraine will shut down Russian civil aviation is being taken seriously – and attracting concern – from Russian warbloggers. They warn that Russia is far more vulnerable to such a shutdown than Ukraine. ⬇️ bsky.app
❗️Russian airspace will effectively be closed. We warn every airline that uses Russian airspace: Russian skies are becoming completely unsafe, – Zelenskyy. “It is important that the relevant airlines hear this — those currently flying to airports,
2/ Russia's huge size makes it exceptionally dependent on air travel, with only one train line and a single paved road connecting the densely populated west with sparsely populated Siberia. Its aviation network is centred on the country's two megacities, Moscow and St Petersburg.
3/ Oleg Tsarov explains the vulnerability which the Ukrainians appear to want to exploit: "For us, this situation is far more dangerous than for Ukraine. You can drive across Ukraine in 24 hours." 4/ "The airports there have been closed since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, but the country has learned to live without them. Foreign leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Inconvenient, but tolerable. 5/ "But you can't drive across Russia in 24 hours. For us, flying isn't a luxury, but a [necessary] means of transportation: Vladivostok, Kamchatka, Norilsk, Kaliningrad—all of these places are difficult to reach by train. 6/ "Cutting off air travel would sever ties between regions—it's a question of the country's integrity. But it's also another attempt to isolate Russia from the rest of the world. 7/ "This threat must be responded to, but we don't have any extra air defences, and private air defences haven't been activated. There are many airports and parked aircraft, and it's difficult to protect each one. 8/ "We need cheap interceptors, our own drones to counter theirs, and we needed them yesterday. After such a statement, we should assume the worst: there will be strikes on civilian aircraft. And Zelenskyy has an excuse—we warned you. The threat is serious. We must respond. 9/ "This is not a positive development. We can expect a reduction in the number of international flights, higher ticket prices, and further disruptions to airport operations." Turkish operator Pegasus has already cancelled flights to Russia; more cancellations are expected. 10/ Andrey Patrakov of RunAvia points out that "it's impossible to close the skies over an airport to protect it. Civil aviation is more vulnerable than an oil refinery: near the glide path, neither kinetic nor electronic warfare can be used at full capacity..." 11/ "Ignoring this new threat would be reckless—especially since this is no longer some hypothetical scenario, but a question of yesterday, as the March [2026] attack on Dubai Airport demonstrated." 12/ "In the case of Pegasus, the airline made the decision, and it is its right: it is responsible for the safety of its passengers and crew. There have been no public statements from Turkish authorities about the increased risks of flights to Russia. 13/ "It is significant that the warning to carriers was issued by Osprey Flight Solutions, a commercial provider of aviation risk assessments used by airlines and insurers. 14/ "Unfortunately, such cases have already occurred worldwide: in February of this year, a civilian aircraft was attacked for the first time at a civilian airport in Myanmar – an ATR 72-600 suffered damage to the cockpit windows and tail section. 15/ "The situation there is unique, as the country is essentially in the midst of a civil war, but a precedent for risk assessment has been established. The risk is already manifesting itself at the business strategy level. 16/ "The decline in Aeroflot shares is just the first manifestation of these risks. If we imagine the Moscow air hub being closed, it would be a colossal blow to all of Russia's civil aviation, and it would no longer matter where you source your spare parts. 17/ "The scale of this is clear from the night of 2 September: according to media reports, approximately 80 flights were canceled or delayed at Moscow International Airport (MIA) airports, and in May,… 18/ …an attack on the Rostov-on-Don air traffic control center shut down 13 airports in the south in a single blow. At the very least, this probability must be considered and assessed, because if it occurs, the entire civil aviation industry would be hit. 19/ "The main conclusion is broader than a single statement. All carriers—both foreign and Russian—are now forced to factor the threat of airspace closure into their decisions. Whether this will become a long-term trend remains to be seen, along with the practice of risk assessment." 20/ 'PolitPochta' anticipates "a new, unpleasant reality – the main consequence of attacks on aviation infrastructure may not be an immediate halt to flights, but a gradual transformation of flights to Moscow into a lottery: you have a ticket, the plane is there –… 21/ …but whether the trip will actually happen, you'll only find out at the boarding gate..." Sources: 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me