1/ Recent intense NATO air activity near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave is being interpreted by Russian warbloggers as "rehearsing a future war". They blame Polish provocations and speculate that a plan is being prepared to blockade Kaliningrad. ⬇️ bsky.app
👀 NATO massed ~25 aircraft near Russia's Kaliningrad region on August 18, including US and Norwegian fighters, AWACS, EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft, Apache attack helicopters.
2/ Alexander Kots notes that the activity involved a wide range of NATO air assets, including some rare and specialised reconnaissance aircraft. The exercises were officially stated to be aimed at improving the coordination of alliance forces and "deterrence." 3/ Kots argues: "Right now, the enemy is rehearsing a future war that they themselves predict will begin in the 2030s. And the first strike will be against our western enclave. NATO considers the Kaliningrad Oblast to be an A2/AD (Anti-Access / Area Denial) zone." 4/ "This is a territory protected by a layered defence system. Its elements include modern air defence systems, anti-ship missile complexes, and operational-tactical missile systems. 5/ "This fortress must be capable of repelling attacks from the air, land, and sea. And attempts to seize it by force could lead to unacceptable losses in personnel and equipment. It would be very dangerous, costly, and slow. 6/ "Therefore, they are already conducting reconnaissance and looking for weaknesses in the enclave's defenses. The composition of the NATO aviation group is indicative. 7/ "With a high degree of probability, helicopters and fighter jets flew at different altitudes and speeds near the range of our radar systems, while reconnaissance aircraft were simultaneously trying to determine their locations. 8/ "And the rare EA-37B electronic warfare aircraft (the US only has five) may have been practicing electronic suppression of communication and control systems of Russian troops in the Kaliningrad Oblast. 9/ "The most likely NATO plan in the event of a future conflict has been repeatedly mentioned: to blockade Kaliningrad and force Russia to try to reach it through the Suwalki Gap, which Europeans have been actively strengthening and mining for a couple of years. 10/ "The calculation is that the army will expend all its offensive potential against these defensive lines, after which the demoralised enemy will be defeated by tanks, aviation, and artillery. 11/ "They still haven't realized that war is different now. Before columns of tanks enter the Suwalki Gap, swarms of drones will fly out, which will nullify all enemy defences. By the 2030s, we hope to have accumulated a sufficient reserve of these drones. 12/ "Recently, Ukrainian media shared the impressions of Ukrainian border guards who participated in exercises with NATO forces. They played the role of the enemy and, according to them, completely outmaneuvered the Westerners with drones. 13/ "They may be lying, but the lack of practical experience in the new type of warfare among NATO armies is a fact. However, they still have time to prepare. As do we. If you want peace, prepare for war." 14/ 'Rybar' also highlights the exercises, but concedes that they are "regularly conducted. This is a way to maintain combat skills among NATO pilots during their "grand" operations, whether in the Black Sea zone, the Baltic Sea, or, more recently, the Scandinavian region." 15/ "However, the intensity is increasing year by year. There are more aircraft, and the stated objectives are becoming increasingly prominent. 16/ "In the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, NATO sees an opportunity to increase pressure on the Russian exclave in the Baltic Sea. 17/ "As for the participation of the United States, their presence in Eastern Europe has, conversely, become minimal – there is currently no tactical aviation in Poland or Britain, and other countries of the Alliance are playing the main role in creating tension." 18/ If the British are the "main bastards", as Russian propagandists have put it, the Poles are surely the "secondary bastards" in the view of 'War Chronicle":
19/ "The Poles, amidst increased NATO reconnaissance flights, are "priming" their audience with stories of a "Russian threat" from Kaliningrad. 20/ "Against the backdrop of noticeably increased activity by NATO reconnaissance and combat aircraft in the region, Polish officials explain the situation as a necessity to demonstrate to Moscow the Alliance's readiness and to prevent potential provocations against Poland. 21/ "Warsaw has been consistently promoting this narrative for several weeks. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, following flights by Russian Il-20 and Su-30 aircraft over the Baltic Sea, stated that Russia was allegedly "testing" the Polish air defence system and… 22/ …NATO's readiness. However, the Russian aircraft did not violate Polish airspace. Meanwhile, Polish media are discussing scenarios of possible Russian provocations against Poland and the Baltic states, including attempts to test the Alliance's reaction. 23/ "Such warnings were publicly voiced by Polish authorities and representatives of neighbouring countries in June and July. 24/ "Against this backdrop, the current concentration of Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft, electronic warfare and other reconnaissance aircraft, fighter jets, and tankers near Kaliningrad is presented as a demonstrative signal to Moscow: the eastern flank is… 25/ …under constant surveillance, and any significant change in activity will be immediately detected. Poland is strong, and so on. 26/ "The result is a rather characteristic construct: first, the public is convinced that Russia is preparing another provocation, and then the increase in their own military activity is explained as a necessity to prevent this provocation. 27/ "In this logic, Kaliningrad is gradually becoming, for the Polish information landscape, a universal source of threat, around which it is possible to simultaneously justify the strengthening of air defense, increased activity of NATO aviation,… 28/ …and the constant readiness of the Polish armed forces. And the associated costs of maintaining them. Convenient. As they say, if there is no enemy, you have to create one." /end Sources: 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me