1/ Ukraine's massive penetration of Moscow's air defences is sparking a great deal of gloomy and angry commentary from Russian warbloggers. The military-technical Telegram channel 'Atomic Cherry' warns of an escalating trend of Ukrainian capabilities. ⬇️ bsky.app
2/ "As an interim observation, I will note that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for the first time in years of the conflict, have succeeded in destroying a number of targets in the Moscow region: 1) Solnechnogorsk loading station; 2) Angstrem JSC enterprise; 3) Elma Technopark; 3/ 4) Transneft oil storage facility; 5) Kapotnya oil refinery. There are a number of statements and testimonies about hits on other targets as well, but listing them all makes no sense. The trend is clear without this. 4/ "Why is this information interesting? First of all, the attack on the Moscow region was carried out with a very modest force - according to Russian officials, "120 UAVs were shot down" (add to this a dozen of those that reached their targets). 5/ Given the regular exaggeration of data on the scale of attacks, one can assume that their number was actually smaller, but this is speculation; Nevertheless, even 120-130 flying bombs is a very, very small number, considering the following factor... 6/ "The Moscow region is the point of greatest density and concentration of air defense forces in the Russian Federation. The most protected region. The most protected city. bsky.app
Over 100 air defense systems now guard Moscow. A second, larger outer ring of air-defense positions is being built around Moscow - Radio Liberty, citing OSINT researchers. The report states that the focus is on deployments of “Pantsir” short-range air-defense missile and
7/ "Previously, Ukrainian units took this fact into account, making no real attempts to attack any specific targets. The most primitive models of flying bombs, designed as flying targets, were launched toward Moscow. 8/ "Their task was simple: to maintain the appearance of intensive air attack operations, thereby tying down the air defences concentrated around Moscow, preventing them from being redeployed to other regions of the Russian Federation. 9/ "But tonight, something changed. Ukrainian flying bombs (and, above all, the reconnaissance and planning behind them) overcame the most powerful air defenses in the Russian Federation. Will this become a sustainable trend? Well, I suppose we'll find out soon... 10/ "Currently, we are at a stage in the conflict where the Ukrainian military industry has already launched the process of mass, large-scale production of various types of flying bombs, and the security forces have mastered their regular use. 11/ "Russian news feeds convincingly demonstrate the effectiveness of this process—I believe no one would dare dispute the number and scale of the attacks, as it would be pointless. 12/ "However, there are two important factors—factors due to which the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign is still far from perfect and effective, even with the level of industrial and military capabilities it currently possesses. 13/ "First and foremost, there is the very structure of the organisational model. For now, I'll briefly describe this issue (it requires a separate text): Ukraine lacks a unified centre for planning and coordinating strikes on Russian territory. 14/ "Such strikes are carried out as part of separate operations, carried out by individual units and the Centres for Strategic Operations, but they are not a unified bombing campaign. 15/ "This is a natural organisational immaturity, caused by the creation of specialised structures from scratch. Sooner or later, they will recognize this problem and, of course, address it. Another factor is the limited arsenal of air attack weapons. 16/ "Currently, Ukraine lacks mass-produced cruise and ballistic missiles—there are prototypes, including some that have undergone some practical testing, but a regularly replenished and growing set of missile systems is lacking. 17/ "It's important to understand that this absence is temporary—although these are more complex technologies than flying bombs, they will eventually appear in large quantities in a relatively short timeframe… 18/ …(Ukrainian companies are currently in the process of finalising prototypes and organizing serial production). 19/ "Simply put, we are currently seeing the results of an imperfect and under-resourced long-range strike system. Naturally, we must anticipate its next cycle of improvement—and, accordingly, an increase in its effectiveness, scale, and intensity. 20/ "And no less important is the following subtle point: Improving the level of organization improves the quality of the result not linearly, but exponentially. 21/ "Because... the best is yet to come. Moscow will ultimately become the focal point of the Ukrainian bombing campaign once it is formalised as a centralised and controlled process. 22/ "For a long time (and to this day), this city has been a kind of "forbidden fruit" for the Ukrainian security forces and military industry—they lacked both the necessary forces and the expertise to organise effective strikes. 23/ "For the Ukrainian system, with its inherently flexible approach to military planning and a broad element of personal involvement, this creates a powerful atmosphere of true challenge—… 24/ …an intellectual and technical challenge that provokes the mobilisation of efforts to find the weak points of the enemy's most powerful air defence shield. And whatever forces and resources they devote, it will be fully justified. 25/ "Russia's hypercentralisation (a persistent trend in all spheres of government activity over the past 25+ years) has led to Moscow concentrating... literally everything. It's not an administrative center. It's not even the capital. 26/ "It's perhaps the only truly important city, defining the entire existence of the Russian Federation, primarily economically and logistically. Political considerations (let's put it mildly) have created a strategic vulnerability of truly cyclopean proportions. 27/ "For now, this vulnerability is well protected—indeed, it mobilises all available national resources to defend itself, no matter what. But will this state of affairs last forever? 28/ "Given the unpredictability of the military dynamics, Ukrainian persistence and resourcefulness, and the scale of European investment... I leave that question open. 29/ "Only practice will confirm the truth or falsity of these arguments, and I believe that won't be too long in coming. For now, I'll just modestly note, in support of the claims of strategic vulnerability, that the very fact of the attacks paralysed air travel and led to the… 30/ …postponement or cancellation of more than 300 flights. And all this was achieved even without direct attacks on airports." /end Sources: 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me 🔹 t.me