1/11 Project Freedom was launched to “reopen” Hormuz. 48 hours later it’s paused. That isn’t inconsistency. It tells us exactly what this operation was: a test, not a solution. Full analysis linked at the end. #Hormuz #MaritimeSecurity
2/11 Two US destroyers went through. They were engaged with missiles, drones, and fast boats. They fought their way through. That’s not a corridor. That’s a contested transit. Iran's response is also pretty clear as the Tweet-war rages. #NavalOps #Hormuz #IranWar #ProjectFreedom
3/11 This matters because of a simple distinction: Warships can operate under fire. Merchant ships cannot. Project Freedom proves capability. It does not prove control. Even US officials admit only a handful of ships moved. Some reports suggest just 2 meaningful transits in 24h. #Shipping #Risk 4/11 At the same time: Commercial vessels were hit (South Korean and UAE-flagged) Drones targeting other ships were recorded Missiles were fired at UAE - most notably Fujairah Port This is not stabilisation. This is escalation within limits. #Hormuz #ProjectFreedom 5/11 The key point: The Strait is not just “closed”. It is actively contested. Every transit draws a response. That changes everything. #SeaControl #SeaDenial #IranWar #Hormuz 6/11 There’s another layer most are missing: Movement appears constrained. Th routes likely avoided known mine risk areas. So even “successful” transits weren’t free movement. They were managed exposure under cover of the US Navy. #MCM #HormuzMines #ProjectFreedom 7/11 There was talk of returning to the Kuwaiti-style escorts. That 1980s tanker escort comparison doesn’t hold. This is not the same fight: Cheap drones Swarm tactics Layered missile threat And we don’t train merchant fleets for convoy warfare anymore. #History #Shipping 8/11 The asymmetry is decisive: US must intercept everything. Iran only needs one hit. One successful strike reshapes the entire risk picture. And what Project Freedom showed us was that any transits (even of warships) will be hotly contested by Iran. #Strategy #Hormuz #IranWar 9/11 The maritime industry will read this clearly: If destroyers are taking fire, this is not insurable risk for commercial shipping. Markets move faster than navies. The prices will now reflect the reality of the danger of the transit - insurance and commodity prices will rise. #Insurance #Trade 10/11 So why the pause? Because the test is done. The US has learned what it needed: You can enter the Strait. You cannot yet control it. So diplomacy will be needed - or an alternative strategy to win the war before reopening can begin. #Geopolitics #ProjectFreedom #USNavy #Diplomacy 11/11 The bottom line: Project Freedom didn’t fail. It revealed the truth. Hormuz can be penetrated under force. It cannot yet be stabilised for trade. Full analysis is here for more depth: #Hormuz #Shipping #IranWar
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It would seem that a CMA vessel also attempted the crossing and was attacked - This is further confirmation of the "closed" nature of the Strait and the ending of Project Freedom operations.